"Cut Off the Money" vs. "Fight to the Death" Standoff... Yet U.S.–Iran Talks Likely to Resume [U.S. Threatens to Close Hormuz]

After talks between the United States of America (U.S.) and the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran) in Islamabad, Islamic Republic of Pakistan, ended in a "no-deal," the two countries immediately shifted the stage to the Strait of Hormuz and continued their struggle for the upper hand. President Donald John Trump (photo) responded with a hard-line move he called a "maritime counter-blockade" designed to completely shut down Iran’s oil exports, and Iran in turn warned of an all-out military clash.
Both sides are wary of a prolonged war. Global attention is now focused on whether this maritime blockade gambit can serve as a maximum-pressure move that revives momentum for talks that have fallen into deadlock.
■ U.S.: "They will come back once we cut off their economic lifeline"
Even as military tensions rise to the breaking point in a razor’s-edge standoff, Trump’s gaze remains fixed on negotiations with Iran. In an interview with Fox News on the 12th (local time), given right after the collapse of the talks, Trump said, "Iran has not left the negotiating table, and I expect they will come back and give us everything we want," expressing confidence that dialogue will resume. Explaining why Iran will have no choice but to return to talks, Trump added, "Iran is in very bad shape right now and is desperate," declaring, "They have no cards to play." The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, set to begin at 11 p.m. on the 13th Korea time, is widely seen as a tool to force Iran back to the negotiating table.
The latest U.S. move is focused on neutralizing control over the strait, which Iran has used as its key leverage in negotiations with Washington. Since closing the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, when the war began, Iran has still allowed third-country oil tankers to pass in exchange for transit fees of up to 2 million dollars (about 3 billion won) per vessel, while exporting an average of 1.85 million barrels of crude per day to the West and China, securing massive war funds.
With a midterm election looming in November, the Trump administration is prepared to endure the domestic blow of rising global oil prices in order to choke off Iran’s financial lifeline at the source and force its complete capitulation. It is also notable that, in explaining the breakdown of the talks, Trump offered a positive assessment: "As the negotiations went into the final stretch, they were very friendly, and we got everything we needed except for the fact that they could not give up their nuclear ambitions." This suggests that if the two sides can find common ground on the highly sensitive nuclear issue, a diplomatic breakthrough could open at any time, and the negotiations could suddenly gain speed.
■ Negotiating table likely to be set up soon
Iran, facing a battle for survival, is refusing to back down from its pledge to fight to the bitter end. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy (IRGC Navy) declared through state media, "All ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is under the full control of the Iranian military authorities," warning, "If our enemies miscalculate even once, the strait will become a deadly maelstrom that swallows them whole." Given the narrow geography of the strait, if a dual blockade is imposed and U.S. Armed Forces and Iranian forces confront each other at close range, even a minor accidental clash or a single drone strike could quickly escalate into an uncontrollable full-scale war.
Even so, the prevailing view is that the two countries will resume talks before long. If Iran loses control of the Strait of Hormuz under counterattacks from the U.S. Armed Forces, its goals of regime survival and sanctions relief will evaporate like a fleeting dream. For the U.S. as well, an unpopular war bogging down into a long quagmire would be politically disastrous for Trump ahead of the election.
However, the defection of a key ally, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK), has emerged as an unexpected variable for the Trump administration’s hard-line drive. The Government of the United Kingdom stated that it "supports keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and ensuring freedom of navigation for the stability of the global economy and living costs," but at the same time announced it would not participate in the U.S. military blockade operation. Instead, London has declared an independent course based on multilateral cooperation with France and others, putting a brake on the U.S. resort to military force. Yet while this discord among allies has narrowed Trump’s military options, it is paradoxically creating an environment in which both Washington and Tehran are under greater pressure to cling to a diplomatic solution.
km@fnnews.com Kim Kyung-min Reporter