"A Play With a Predetermined Ending... Myanmar's General Election Institutionalizes Military Rule, Not a Return to Democracy" [Interview]

HANOI, Vietnam — Cheon Gi-hong, a leading Myanmar expert in Korea and Distinguished Professor (Special Appointment) in the Department of Burmese Language at Busan University of Foreign Studies, described Myanmar's general election and the inauguration of Min Aung Hlaing as president as "not a return to democracy, but the institutionalization of military government." Cheon has lived in Yangon, Myanmar, since 2002 and recently became the first Korean to receive a PhD from the University of Yangon, the country's top university, after completing a decade-long master's and doctoral program with a dissertation titled "A Contrastive Study of Korean and Burmese Phonetics."
Cheon said, "My work goes beyond simple language research. I intend to analyze Myanmar's sentiments and culture from the perspective of linguistic anthropology, linking them with politics, the economy, and society." He added, "Through this, I hope to understand the characteristics of the 'Burmese Way' and study Myanmar's future direction and possible approaches." The following is a Q&A on the inauguration of President Min Aung Hlaing.
―How do you assess the 2025–2026 general election, and what has been the local reaction?He answered, "This general election was like a play with a predetermined ending." He noted that after the 2021 coup d'état, the National League for Democracy (NLD), the main pro-democracy force, was forcibly dissolved in 2023, and the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which represents the military, won a landslide victory. "This outcome reflects not the will of the people," he argued, "but a thoroughly calculated 'legal laundering process' designed to secure the military's justification for the coup d'état."
According to Cheon, the surface-level reaction inside the country appears very calm, including in major cities such as Yangon. However, he stressed that this does not mean stability has been restored. Rather, a deep sense of helplessness and fear prevails, rooted in the belief that election results cannot change people's lives. In particular, no voting took place in active conflict zones, leaving more than half the population effectively excluded. "There is a strong perception that this was only a 'half an election'," he said, "but people are unable to voice criticism and instead turn away in silence."
―What political changes do you foresee after Min Aung Hlaing's inauguration as president?Cheon explained that Min Aung Hlaing had maintained martial rule through the State Administration Council (SAC), citing a state of emergency. "With his election as president, he will continue to rule from the apex of 'institutionalized power'," Cheon said.
Outwardly, Min Aung Hlaing is likely to appear in civilian attire instead of a military uniform and send a message to the international community that Myanmar has 'returned to normal statehood.' In reality, though, the power structure has become even more entrenched. Cheon pointed out that retired military figures are now embedded across the government through newly created bodies such as the Federal Advisory Council and the Union Consultative Council (UCC). "This means that the military's interests are being formally codified as state policy," he said, predicting that the regime's practical control over the country will only grow tighter.
―How will the civil war evolve following Min Aung Hlaing's inauguration as president?Cheon said, "Min Aung Hlaing's inauguration as president sends a signal to the pro-democracy camp and resistance forces that 'negotiations are no longer possible.'" From the perspective of the National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG) and ethnic armed organisations in Myanmar, he explained, this moment is being interpreted as the beginning of a new authoritarian regime.
He continued, "The military has now secured a pretext to intensify military operations by designating resistance forces as 'illegal organizations.' In response, the resistance has completely rejected the election and is escalating its armed struggle." As a result, he warned, "A hardline confrontation on both sides is deepening, and there is a very high likelihood that a grinding civil war will become entrenched, rather than any short-term peace agreement being reached."
―How have the people of Myanmar responded after the general election?Cheon observed that livelihoods had already collapsed under the combined impact of the coup d'état and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and recent natural disasters have made matters worse. "People have lost hope," he said. "Survival has become more important than politics."
He added that the sharp depreciation of the local currency, soaring prices, severe power outages, and fuel crises have all converged. "There is a widespread feeling that 'no matter who becomes president, we still worry about tomorrow's meal,'" he said. Unlike Myanmar's former image as a gentle Buddhist country, he noted, fear has spread to the point where going out at night is now considered dangerous.
The changes among young people are also significant. Cheon explained that many who initially supported the pro-democracy camp or took part in the resistance are now, in a state of deep disillusionment, looking for ways to leave the country. "Preparing for Korean language, Japanese language, and Chinese language proficiency tests has become the norm," he said, "and the dominant mood among the young is to find a path out of Myanmar."
rejune1112@fnnews.com Kim Jun-seok Reporter