"Tripled on the 'SpaceX effect'"—will Mirae Asset Securities' rally continue?

[Financial News] Shares of Mirae Asset Securities have surged nearly 190% so far this year on expectations for gains from its investment in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX). However, analysts are divided over where the stock is headed from here. According to the Korea Exchange (KRX) on the 10th, Mirae Asset Securities' share price has jumped 184.8% this year, from 23,350 won to 66,500 won.
As the value of global investment assets has risen sharply, trading volumes in the stock market have increased, and on top of that, the strong performance of its early investment in SpaceX has stood out, driving a rapid rally in the share price.
In the securities industry, expectations are building that Mirae Asset Securities will enjoy strong earnings momentum as valuation gains related to SpaceX are reflected in its results.
Since the start of this month, four brokerages have all raised their target prices for Mirae Asset Securities.
Yuanta Securities Korea forecasts Mirae Asset Securities' first-quarter net profit attributable to controlling shareholders at 1.3176 trillion won, projecting that it will far exceed the market consensus of 829.2 billion won.
Woo Do-hyung, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "We believe valuation gains related to SpaceX will be reflected in the first quarter, and the amount is expected to exceed 1 trillion won," adding, "We expect continued support for the share price from anticipated valuation gains tied to SpaceX, which is scheduled to list in June, as well as momentum related to digital assets." He set a target price of 83,000 won.
Hana Securities also projects first-quarter net profit attributable to controlling shareholders at 1.2 trillion won for Mirae Asset Securities, up 348.9% from a year earlier.
Ko Yeon-su, an analyst at Hana Securities, noted, "The market is concerned that earnings may peak out after SpaceX goes public, but SpaceX is not the end—it is only the beginning."
He went on to explain, "Looking at the main investment partnerships, investments in SpaceX and xAI were made through vehicles such as Mirae Asset AI Investment Partnership No. 1 and Global Sector Leader Investment Association No. 1. The total assets of these partnerships increased meaningfully in 2024 compared with the previous year, which appears to reflect valuation gains from higher corporate values," adding, "Beyond SpaceX-related investments, valuation gains are also expanding on stakes in AI and other innovative companies held through Global Innovation Growth Investment Partnership No. 1, Demotech Frontier Investment Partnership, and similar vehicles."
Still, many warn that investors should be cautious given how sharply the stock has risen in a short period. BNK Securities raised its target price on Mirae Asset Securities from 32,000 won to 68,000 won on the 9th, but said that, considering the current share price, the upside potential now looks limited.
Kim In, an analyst at BNK Securities, assessed, "The sharp increase in earnings and the possibility of share buybacks and cancellations are positives, but the high valuation is a burden."
Korea Investment & Securities is also maintaining a "neutral" rating on the stock. Baek Doo-san, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, commented, "Two deals completed late last year and early this year significantly boosted the company's valuation, leading to substantial valuation gains on those equity stakes," but added, "Even taking that into account, investors should be prepared for the possibility of a period of consolidation in the share price."
nodelay@fnnews.com Park Ji-yeon Reporter