Suspicious 1 Trillion-Won Bet... White House Warns, "No Front-Running with Inside Information"

[The Financial News] As U.S. military decisions involving the Islamic Republic of Iran unfolded, massive trades were recorded simultaneously in financial and prediction markets, fueling controversy over the possible use of war-related information. The White House has moved to tighten internal controls, warning staff not to place bets on prediction markets by exploiting their official positions.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 9th (local time) that the White House sent an email to its staff on the 24th of last month conveying this message. The move is being interpreted as an attempt to preemptively block speculation based on information tied to policy decisions.
The controversy centers on the timing of President Donald Trump’s military decision. On the morning of the 23rd of last month, Trump posted on social media that he would postpone strikes on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s power plants and energy facilities by five days.
The issue is that roughly 15 minutes before that post went up, a concentrated burst of trades worth $760 million (about 1.124 trillion won) took place in the crude oil futures market in less than two minutes. The abnormal clustering of trades ahead of a specific announcement raised suspicions that information may have leaked in advance.
A similar pattern was observed in prediction markets. On the betting platform Polymarket, some accounts reportedly predicted this week’s ceasefire timing for the Islamic Republic of Iran with pinpoint accuracy, generating more than $600,000 in profit.
In response, figures in the Democratic Party of the United States have raised allegations of insider trading. However, no direct evidence has yet emerged that any member of the administration leaked information or used it to place bets.
Under current ethics rules, federal employees are prohibited from using official information for private gain. Critics note, however, that there are institutional limits when it comes to regulating anonymous online prediction markets.
Richard Blumenthal argued, "Prediction markets are turning war into a casino game and creating a marketplace for trading national security information." He and Andy Kim have introduced a bill that would impose a blanket ban on prediction-market products related to war or military action.

km@fnnews.com Kim Kyung-min Reporter