Will an Economic War Be Averted? Behind-the-Scenes U.S.–Iran Talks on a ‘45-Day Ceasefire and Final Peace Deal’ [U.S.–Iran War]

As the U.S.–Iran war edges toward an "economic war" directly targeting the two countries’ core energy and civilian infrastructure, a proposed "45-day ceasefire" has emerged in an effort to avert catastrophe, pushing the situation to a decisive turning point. Global market anxiety has surged after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to carry out a full-scale destruction of infrastructure if negotiations collapse, but a two-stage peace proposal has been delivered to both sides through mediators such as Pakistan, opening the door to a dramatic last-minute compromise.
"I’ll blow everything away"
Trump, who has zeroed in on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s economic and transportation infrastructure, is heightening fear by signaling he can devastate key facilities at any moment to force a deal. In an interview with Axios on the 5th (local time), Trump said, "We are engaged in deep negotiations" and noted, "The chances of an agreement are high, but if they do not agree, I will blow everything away there." He added, "The talks are going well, but we never get to the finish line with Iran," expressing deep distrust of Tehran’s negotiating posture and hinting at the uncertainty of any breakthrough.
Earlier, Trump personally released video footage of the destruction of the "B1" bridge near Karaj, the tallest bridge in Iran, and then went on to specify the timing of further strikes on his social media accounts. "There is not much time left. They have 48 hours until the gates of hell open for them. This Tuesday (the 7th) will be a day of power plants and bridges in Iran," he declared, stressing that if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened, the United States will launch a full-scale attack starting at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday (9 a.m. Korea time on the 8th). He went further, saying, "Open the damn strait, you lunatics. If you don’t, you’re going to live in hell," lacing his warning with profanity.
With the U.S. strike plan on infrastructure appearing imminent, diplomatic efforts toward a compromise have also gained urgency. On the 6th, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran received from mediator Pakistan a proposal aimed at ending hostilities. Although no agreement has yet been reached, the plan is built around a two-stage approach: an immediate ceasefire followed by a comprehensive final settlement to end the war.
Axios had earlier reported that the two countries were engaged in behind-the-scenes talks through Pakistan, Egypt, and others. According to those reports, a proposal is on the table that would begin with a "first-stage 45-day ceasefire" and move to a "second-stage end to the war." In other words, even as extreme military threats escalate, both sides are simultaneously exploring a diplomatic escape route to prevent a disastrous outcome.
The Costs of War Passed on to the World
As military clashes increasingly target civilian energy infrastructure, the fuse of the global economy is burning alongside the conflict. Direct strikes on energy facilities can instantly cut off an opponent’s financial lifeline and paralyze daily life for its citizens, giving such attacks overwhelming economic impact and coercive power.
As seen in the past attack on KSA’s state oil company Saudi Aramco, even a single strike on a major energy facility can send international oil prices into a convulsive spike. On top of that, heightened military tension in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy shipping lane, is all but certain to trigger a chain reaction of rising maritime insurance premiums and overall transport costs.
If Trump’s threats of strikes materialize into a large-scale air campaign, market panic could quickly spiral out of control. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major oil-producing nations have agreed to increase output by 206,000 barrels per day starting in May, but that is far from enough to calm fears of massive supply disruptions. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s joint military command, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters (KCHQ), responded in a spokesperson’s statement, warning, "If attacks on civilian targets are repeated, our next offensive and retaliatory operations will be far more destructive and extensive." In fact, key energy facilities in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have already suffered successive damage from Iranian drone strikes, and the fallout is spreading.
km@fnnews.com Kim Kyung-min Reporter