One day before Samsung Electronics' earnings... Could it be the key to reversing a war-hit stock market?

Amid rising geopolitical risks from the Middle East and mounting interest rate pressures, volatility in the Korean stock market has increased, placing it at a critical turning point ahead of Samsung Electronics’ earnings release. The upcoming results are emerging as a key factor that could determine the direction of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), rather than just a single corporate event.
■ Market-cap leader Samsung Electronics to announce quarterly earnings on the 7th
According to the securities industry on the 6th, Samsung Electronics will release its preliminary first-quarter results on the morning of the 7th. Market data provider FnGuide projects that the company’s operating profit for the first quarter of this year will surge to 38.1166 trillion won, up 470.16% from a year earlier. Over the same period, revenue is estimated at 117.1336 trillion won, a 48.01% increase, while net profit is forecast at 31.4258 trillion won, up 282.18%. Analysts say this reflects a full-fledged recovery in the semiconductor cycle and a sharp rise in memory prices.
Brokerages are also placing significant weight on the possibility that earnings will beat market consensus. Kim Sun-woo, an analyst at Meritz Securities, stated, “We expect Samsung Electronics’ first-quarter operating profit to reach 53.9 trillion won, far exceeding the 20.1 trillion won recorded in the fourth quarter of last year, when the memory upcycle began in earnest,” adding, “Quarterly operating profit is likely to hit record highs repeatedly throughout this year.”
Kim particularly noted, “It appears that strong price hikes have materialized for both Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) and NAND flash memory, even as shipment volumes have been maintained,” and explained, “Memory operating profit is expected to reach 50.3 trillion won, marking an all-time high.”
The main driver behind the earnings surge is price. Analysts say the market has entered a phase where higher memory semiconductor prices translate directly into profit growth. Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, estimated, “Samsung Electronics’ first-quarter operating profit is projected at 40 trillion won, up 498% year-on-year, approaching the level of our full-year 2025 operating profit forecast,” and analyzed, “We have entered a stage where rising memory prices are directly feeding into earnings growth.” He added, “With memory inventories currently at only about one to two weeks’ worth, we are in a ‘surprise’ phase where supply constraints, price increases, and earnings improvement are occurring at the same time,” and went on, “In the second quarter as well, the pace of memory price hikes is likely to exceed market expectations.”
Some observers interpret this earnings improvement as the beginning of a structural shift rather than a short-term cycle. Kim Young-gun, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities, assessed, “These results mark the opening act of explosive earnings growth, signaling the start of a structural shift toward memory profitability,” and added, “Technology changes centered on high-performance memory, including HBM4, are now gaining full momentum.”
A key factor is that the expansion of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry is structurally boosting memory demand. As big tech companies ramp up investment in data centers and demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) rises in tandem, analysts say Samsung Electronics has entered a medium- to long-term earnings upcycle. According to KB Securities, AI data centers now absorb roughly 60% of total DRAM and NAND flash memory shipments.
■ Samsung Electronics’ earnings to drive a KOSPI rally?
The market is now watching closely to see whether these earnings can trigger a rebound in the KOSPI. Recently, the Korean stock market has seen heightened volatility as the Iran crisis, interest rate burdens, and a weaker currency have all combined to weigh on sentiment. Foreign investor flows have also been unstable, limiting further gains in the index.
In this environment, some predict that if Samsung Electronics’ results beat expectations, overall investor sentiment could recover quickly. Given the large weight of the semiconductor sector in the KOSPI’s total market capitalization, Samsung’s earnings are highly likely to act as a direct catalyst for breaking through the index’s upper range.
Conversely, if the numbers fall short of expectations, volatility could spike further, especially given the recent sharp run-up in the share price. Since the market has already priced in strong earnings to some extent, there is also talk that profit-taking could emerge after the announcement on the view that the “catalyst has run its course.”
Overall, the securities industry remains optimistic. A source at a brokerage firm commented, “Three factors are working together—rising memory prices, expanding AI demand, and low inventory levels—making it highly likely that the earnings momentum will continue,” and added, “Samsung Electronics’ results could serve as a driver that lifts the KOSPI to a higher level, rather than just a short-term event.”

dschoi@fnnews.com Choi Doo-seon Reporter