What Will Happen to Our Crude Oil Shipping Route? "Low Chance Iran Will Reopen the Strait of Hormuz"

[Financial News] The chances that the Islamic Republic of Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon appear low. The Islamic Republic of Iran effectively holds control over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s main crude oil shipping routes, as its only real leverage.
According to foreign media reports on the 4th, the United States of America (US) intelligence community believes there is little likelihood that the Islamic Republic of Iran will lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the near term, Reuters news agency reported on the 3rd (local time), citing three anonymous sources.
Reuters news agency noted that this assessment suggests the Islamic Republic of Iran’s restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which help keep energy prices elevated, could be used as a means to pressure US President Donald Trump to quickly find an exit from what is seen as an "unpopular war."
Some analysts also argue that the current war, launched with the stated aim of fundamentally weakening the Islamic Republic of Iran’s military capabilities, may instead highlight its ability to threaten traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, could actually enhance the Islamic Republic of Iran’s influence in the region.
Ali Vaez, who heads the Iran Project at the think tank International Crisis Group (ICG), said, "The United States tried to prevent the Islamic Republic of Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction, but instead handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption."
A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Donald Trump "is confident the strait will reopen before long," making clear that after the war he would not tolerate the Islamic Republic of Iran’s control over maritime traffic in the area.
However, this official added that Donald Trump has also remarked that other countries have "a far greater stake than the US in preventing such an outcome."
Meanwhile, although still a small number, some vessels have recently succeeded in passing through the Strait of Hormuz, The Guardian reported. These included ships not only from China but also from France, Japan and other countries closely aligned with the West.
According to The Guardian, the Malta-flagged container ship Kribi, owned by the French shipping company CMA CGM Group, switched on its location transponder near Dubai on March 28 and began moving. It then sailed along a route near Larak Island off the Islamic Republic of Iran’s coast before exiting the Persian Gulf.
The Financial Times (FT) reported that three oil tankers linked to Oman also recently left the Persian Gulf.
According to Reuters news agency, one of these was the Panama-flagged Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier Sohar LNG, operated by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) of Japan.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to continue actively leveraging its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Jazeera reported on the 4th that the Islamic Republic of Iran may classify countries into three groups—hostile, neutral and friendly—and apply different levels of permission for passage through the Strait of Hormuz accordingly.
Under this approach, ships linked to hostile states such as the State of Israel and the US would be banned from transiting the strait, while vessels from neutral countries would be allowed to pass but charged transit fees.
fair@fnnews.com Han Young-joon Reporter