[Correspondent’s Column] Lessons from Japan’s SNS-Driven Panic Buying Scare

Japan has recently been hit by an unexpected wave of toilet paper panic buying. It all started on social media. A photo from the 1973 oil shock, showing crowds rushing into a supermarket to grab toilet paper, began circulating online. The image of a dozen people filling the aisle and stretching out their hands to clutch toilet paper rolls brought back memories from half a century ago.
After the Yom Kippur War in 1973, oil-producing countries raised crude prices and cut supplies, and Japan was hit hard. In 1974, consumer prices rose more than 20 percent. As prices for everyday necessities surged and fears of shortages spread, people began hoarding toilet paper.
As tensions in the Middle East have intensified recently, a similar pattern is emerging. On social media, photos have appeared of supermarket shelves in Tokyo and other regions where toilet paper is sparsely stocked, along with signs reading "Limit: 3 packs per household." Posts warning that "If you don’t buy now, it will be too late" have also spread rapidly.
This trend is clearly visible in sales data. According to Nikkei POS, in the second week of March (9–15), toilet paper sales revenue jumped 59 percent year-on-year, while sales volume rose 57 percent. In the third week (16–22), volume increased another 37 percent, showing that the panic buying continued.
On the surface, this looks like a surge in consumption driven by psychological anxiety, but there is also structural tension in the supply chain in the background. The paper industry explains that a large share of its raw materials comes from recycled paper and that its dependence on the Middle East is low, so the immediate risk of production disruptions is limited. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) likewise posted on X (formerly Twitter) on the 19th, stating, "Most toilet paper is produced domestically, and there is ample capacity to increase output," and called for a calm response.
However, rising crude oil prices are shaking the cost structure of production across the board. Logistics expenses, packaging materials, and petrochemical feedstock prices are all climbing in succession, increasing the burden on industry as a whole.
In fact, one Japanese trading company reportedly received notices from six different suppliers within just a week about price hikes for Naphtha and other raw materials. It is an unusually high number. Under METI’s post, comments such as "Even if toilet paper pulp is fine, what about the plastic packaging?" and "If factories shut down due to energy shortages, won’t toilet paper supplies fall as well?" have continued to appear, showing how distrust is spreading.
Japan’s heavy dependence on Middle Eastern crude further fuels these concerns. The country relies on the region for 94 percent of its crude oil imports, and more than half of that comes from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The price of crude imported from KSA for March soared 80 percent from the previous month, approaching its highest level since 2008. On top of this, the weak Japanese yen is rapidly increasing the cost of oil imports. As uncertainty spreads through social media, it stokes consumer anxiety, which in turn feeds back into more panic buying.
To break this vicious cycle, the Japanese government is responding on two fronts: diversifying supply chains and expanding the provision of information. The idea is to manage supply risks structurally, while containing psychological anxiety through transparent communication.
First, it has set up a "Task Force on Securing Stable Supplies of Critical Materials amid Middle East Tensions," headed by Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa. The goal is to structurally manage supply chain risks by reducing dependence on the Middle East and diversifying sources of procurement. In practice, the government and private companies are working together to increase crude oil imports from regions outside the Middle East, including Central Asia, South America, and Canada.
At the same time, the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE), which is under METI, has created a new position of "crisis management spokesperson." The agency is strengthening information disclosure by publishing daily data on energy stockpiles and issuing unified updates on tanker movements and supply conditions. Such measures were not taken even during the Great East Japan Earthquake or the Russo-Ukrainian War.
This episode carries important lessons for the Republic of Korea as well. The Republic of Korea is also highly dependent on energy imports and structurally vulnerable to external shocks. Above all, the fact that anxiety amplified through social media can quickly translate into real consumer behavior and disrupt markets is no different from what Japan is now experiencing.
sjmary@fnnews.com Reporter