Soaring Oil Prices Push Trump Toward a Possible Unilateral ‘End of War’ Declaration [U.S.–Iran War]

Although the Islamic Republic of Iran has rejected Washington’s proposal to end the war and is denying that any talks are taking place, the possibility that President Donald Trump could unilaterally declare a “self-declared end to the war” without a clear, mutual agreement is rapidly gaining traction in political and diplomatic circles in Washington, D.C.
The United States of America (U.S.) is believed to have been quietly working behind the scenes to hammer out concrete terms for ending hostilities with the Islamic Republic of Iran. On the 25th (local time), Channel 12 (Israel) reported that “Marco Rubio and Middle East envoy Steven Charles Witkoff are taking part in negotiations to end the war.”
Trump also suggested that a deal to end the war may be close. Through the social media platform Truth Social, he stated, “Over the past two days, we have had very good and productive discussions with Iran on a complete and comprehensive resolution of hostile activities in the Middle East.”
However, the response from the Islamic Republic of Iran is completely at odds with Washington’s optimism. Iran’s leadership is sticking to a hard line, insisting it cannot enter talks without clear compensation for the military strikes or the lifting of sanctions. In an interview with India Today, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei declared, “There is no dialogue or negotiation whatsoever between the United States and Iran,” flatly denying Washington’s claim that talks are underway. Ali Mousavi, Iran’s representative to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), also said, “Attacks by the United States and Israel must be completely halted,” adding, “The Strait of Hormuz will remain open only to vessels not linked to Iran’s enemies,” thereby ratcheting up the pressure.
Despite the two sides remaining far apart, growing weight is being given to the scenario in which Trump issues a unilateral declaration ending the war without compromise. The key reason is the November midterm election. The surge in global oil prices triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become a severe political liability for Trump. Even if the Islamic Republic of Iran ultimately refuses to sign onto a cease-fire proposal and continues to obstruct, many in Washington expect Trump to pick a moment to claim that U.S. military objectives have been achieved and then unilaterally declare the end of military operations.
The timeline for a U.S.–China summit is reinforcing this outlook. The White House announced that the summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which had initially been postponed due to the war with the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be held in Beijing on May 14–15. In Washington, this schedule is widely seen as the de facto target date the administration has in mind for bringing the Iran war to a close.
At a briefing that day, White House spokesperson Karoline Claire Leavitt was asked whether the war with the Islamic Republic of Iran could be over before Trump’s trip to China. She replied, “We have always expected this military operation to last four to six weeks. If you do the math, you’ll know the answer.”
Counting six weeks from the start of the war on the 28th of last month points to mid-April. This suggests that, at the latest, before Trump boards a plane for Beijing in mid-May, the administration intends to wrap up the Middle East conflict and pivot back to G2 diplomacy between the U.S. and China.
Analysts caution, however, that a unilateral U.S. declaration ending the war does not guarantee immediate peace in the Middle East or an end to military provocations by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Even if the U.S. halts large-scale airstrikes, Iran could continue low-intensity provocations—such as guerrilla warfare carried out by pro-Iranian armed groups or the seizure of oil tankers in the strait—to maintain its regional influence. In that scenario, a full-scale escalation might be avoided, but chronic instability along global oil shipping routes could become the new normal.