Are the ‘15 Demands’ Just a Recycled Failed Deal? Will Iran Accept It? [U.S.–Iran War]

As the U.S. delivered a list of 15 demands to the Islamic Republic of Iran and talk of a proposed one‐month ceasefire surfaced, a tense war of nerves has intensified between the two sides. With Pakistan attempting to mediate a diplomatic compromise, both camps are simultaneously waging a broad pressure campaign on the ground to seize the upper hand at the negotiating table. The U.S. is brandishing the "stick" of deploying elite ground forces, while Iran is countering with the "hostage tactic" of threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery of global energy supplies, creating a fierce tug‐of‐war with no sign of concessions.
■ A recycled list of demands and the carrot‐and‐stick dilemma
According to Keshet 12 in the State of Israel and the UK‐based The Guardian on the 24th (local time), the 15‐point list presented by the Trump administration to Iran includes a requirement that Iran transfer its stockpile of 450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and dismantle key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. The proposal also calls for limiting the range and scale of its missiles strictly to self‐defense purposes and halting support for pro‐Iran proxy forces.
If Iran accepts these terms, the U.S. is reportedly prepared to fully lift sanctions, support civilian nuclear programs including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, and scrap the "snapback" mechanism that would automatically reimpose sanctions in the event of a deal violation.
Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan, announced on X (social network), formerly Twitter, that he is "ready to host meaningful talks for a comprehensive solution," signaling an active push to mediate.
However, The Guardian reported that "from Iran’s perspective, Washington’s demands, which presuppose giving up the sovereign right to enrich uranium, a core national issue, are seen as essentially a rehashed version of a past proposal that collapsed," adding that "the chances of acceptance are extremely low."
■ U.S. sends in ground troops vs. Iran grips the strait
Behind the ceasefire discussions, shows of force continue. According to The New York Times (NYT) and Cable News Network (CNN), about 1,000 troops from the 1st Brigade Combat Team of the 82nd Airborne Division, led by Major General Brandon Tegtmeier, commander of the U.S. Army 82nd Airborne Division, are expected to deploy to the Middle East within the coming days.
The 82nd Airborne Division is the core of the U.S. Army Immediate Response Force (IRF), which has been dispatched to major flashpoints such as immediately after the 2020 killing of Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and during the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan. Their most likely target is Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Given Donald Trump’s declaration that "we can wipe that island off the map whenever we want," the move amounts to an explicit threat to seize Iran’s economic heart if talks break down.
Iran, for its part, is responding with brinkmanship. Around 3,200 vessels are currently stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, and at least 22 ships have come under Iranian attack since the conflict began. According to the Financial Times (FT), some vessels have paid Iran up to 2 million dollars (about 3 billion won) in exchange for security guarantees. In a letter to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Iran’s Foreign Ministry declared that only "non‐hostile vessels" whose passage has been pre‐coordinated will be allowed through. Furthermore, Iranian lawmaker Mansour Alimardani and other politicians have warned of a prolonged standoff, stating that "reciprocal measures against countries that joined U.S. sanctions are under consideration, along with shifting settlement currencies from the dollar to other currencies."
■ Saudi Arabia’s divergent agenda and a divided West
The tug‐of‐war between the two countries is further complicated by the tangled interests of neighboring states, making the Middle East equation even harder to solve. Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MbS), Crown Prince of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has reportedly been urging Donald Trump behind the scenes to launch U.S. ground operations and topple the Iranian government.
For the State of Israel, even if Iran were to become a "failed state" due to internal turmoil, that outcome could still be framed as a security gain. Saudi Arabia, however, calculates differently. Riyadh views the possibility that an uncontrollable military faction or militia might continue to strike Saudi oil facilities even after the Iranian regime collapses as a grave security threat.
Signs of division are also emerging within the Western camp. Ahead of the Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers’ meeting scheduled in Paris on the 27th of this month, six members—France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK), Canada, and Japan—have conveyed their view that the hard‐line military operations pursued by the U.S. and Israel are illegal and unnecessary.
km@fnnews.com Kim Kyung-min Reporter