Back to 6,000? Semiconductor earnings and KOSDAQ reform fuel optimism [Weekly Market Outlook]

Last week, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) broke above the 5,700 level, extending its strong rally toward the much-discussed "KOSPI 6,000 era." Some analysts said the market proved its resilience as individual and institutional investors absorbed profit-taking by foreign investors.
This week, the stock market will likely test whether the KOSPI can reclaim the 6,000 level, supported by solid earnings expectations for semiconductor stocks and policy momentum from the government's "capital market reform" drive.
According to the Korea Exchange on the 22nd, the KOSPI closed at 5,781.20 last week (September 16–20), up 5.36% from the previous week. On a weekly basis, foreign investors posted net selling of 3.2659 trillion won in the main board, while institutions and individuals bought a net 2.2435 trillion won and 914.9 billion won, respectively, lifting the index. Over the same period, KOSDAQ (Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotations) also rose 0.74% week-on-week to finish at 1,161.52, continuing its attempt to consolidate at higher levels.
Brokerages characterize the current environment as a market where individual stock earnings momentum, rather than index-level bets, is driving share prices. In particular, upward revisions to profit estimates for the semiconductor sector, led by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, are seen as easing valuation pressure on the broader KOSPI.
Na Jeong-hwan, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, noted, "The KOSPI's 12‐month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is around 9.5 times, below the 10‐year average of 10.5 times," adding, "Despite the recent rally, the expansion in earnings means the market still offers attractive undervaluation."
Government initiatives to improve the structure of the capital market are also supporting investor sentiment. In particular, as discussions on introducing a two-tier KOSDAQ system—dividing the market into premium and standard segments—gain momentum, analysts expect greater differentiation in favor of high-quality blue chips.
Jong-min Kim, an analyst at Samsung Securities, explained, "As funds from active exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are increasingly concentrated in large-cap KOSDAQ names, this flow is providing a supply-and-demand catalyst that is driving individual share prices."
NH Investment & Securities presented a projected KOSPI trading range of 5,500 to 6,100.
Na cautioned that if the current period of high oil prices persists, fading expectations for interest rate cuts could weigh on equities. Even so, he pointed to the fact that Jerome Hayden Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve System (the Fed), cited productivity gains from artificial intelligence (AI) as a key reason for upgrading growth forecasts, and projected, "The AI cycle is likely to continue for a considerable period of time."