Administrative Consolidation Shakes Up Traditional Strongholds [Opening of the June 3 Local Elections]

The June 3 local elections are now just over 80 days away. This will be the ninth such vote since the Nationwide Local Elections were introduced in 1995. As this is the first nationwide election to be held after Martial Law, Impeachment, and the presidential election, observers expect it to clearly reveal the direction of public sentiment. Administrative consolidation is also projected to have a significant impact on the electoral landscape.
According to the political establishment on the 15th, after the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea passed the Special Act on the Establishment of the Gwangju–South Jeolla Administrative Integration Special City on the 1st, the Government of South Korea and the National Election Commission (NEC) have been taking the necessary administrative steps and preparing for the elections.
Among the political parties, the ruling Democratic Party of Korea is moving much faster in its election preparations. Various polls show that since the launch of the Lee Jae-myung administration, public opinion favoring the idea that "the government and ruling party should be given more power" has been dominant, leading to a flood of hopefuls seeking the party’s nomination. In Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, regarded as the main battlegrounds, many even believe that winning the party primary virtually guarantees victory in the general election. The Democratic Party of Korea is aiming not only to win back Seoul and Busan Metropolitan City among the 16 metropolitan and provincial governor posts, but also to capture Daegu.
By contrast, the opposition People Power Party (PPP) remains in disarray with only 79 days left until the vote as of the 16th. Prolonged internal conflict over whether to apologize for Martial Law and whether to sever ties with Yoon Suk Yeol, former president of South Korea, has caused confusion even in the nomination process for key constituencies such as Seoul.
Administrative consolidation, which so far has only been finalized for the Gwangju–South Jeolla region, is seen as a factor that could heavily influence the elections. The Gwangju–South Jeolla region is a stronghold of support for the Democratic Party of Korea. As the Lee Jae-myung administration has pledged 20 trillion won in support over four years for the integrated special city, the ruling party’s base there is expected to become even more solid. Analysts also say that Daegu–Gyeongbuk (TK), the PPP’s traditional bastion, could see shifts due to the consolidation issue. Although a special act for integration was pursued in parallel with Gwangju–South Jeolla, it was blocked in the Legislation and Judiciary Committee of the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea due to opposition within the PPP. After protests from TK lawmakers, the PPP belatedly unified around a position in favor, but the party remains on a collision course with the Democratic Party of Korea, which is demanding a public apology for the confusion and cooperation on the Special Act on the Establishment of the Chungnam-Daejeon Integrated City. According to a senior official at the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea, the legislative deadline for administrative consolidation before the local elections is in early April. If the Daegu–Gyeongbuk Administrative Integration Special Act (TK Integration Act) ultimately fails, local backlash could grow over the loss of the 20 trillion won support package, potentially reshaping the electoral map. Past local elections show several cases in which the Democratic Party of Korea performed strongly in the region.
The swing-voter region of Daejeon and South Chungcheong Province is also expected to see its electoral dynamics shaken, as administrative consolidation there has run into crisis due to PPP opposition. Except for the 7th nationwide local elections, when the Democratic Party of Korea swept the area on the back of support for Former President Moon Jae-in, the vote gap between the two major parties in Daejeon and South Chungcheong Province has typically remained in the single digits. With President Lee currently maintaining an approval rating around 60 percent, and if administrative consolidation falls through, the region could tilt sharply toward the Democratic Party of Korea.
uknow@fnnews.com Kim Yun-ho Reporter