With the Strait of Hormuz Blocked, Tankers Turn to the Red Sea — Wild Card: Houthi Rebels

Middle Eastern oil-producing countries along the Persian Gulf are redirecting their oil exports to the Red Sea after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz. However, it remains uncertain whether tankers can pass safely, as Houthi rebels aligned with Iran and based near the Red Sea’s southern exit are targeting the flow of oil tankers.
■ Even rerouting tankers through the Red Sea is not enough
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has effectively ground to a halt. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls the strait, claimed on the 10th (local time), "During the war, no U.S. warship has ever dared to approach the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, or the Strait of Hormuz."
On the same day, Amin H. Nasser, chief executive officer of the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco), warned, "Global crude inventories are now close to their lowest levels in the past five years," adding, "This crisis has shaken the shipping and insurance industries and will trigger a domino effect across sectors such as aviation, agriculture, and automobiles."
Middle Eastern oil producers are racing to secure export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. According to U.S. media reports that day, at least 25 very large crude carriers have moved over the past two days toward Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast in western Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Together, these tankers can carry about 50 million barrels of crude, which is expected to partially ease disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf.
Yet the oil industry believes that using the Red Sea as an alternative route cannot fully make up for the loss of the Strait of Hormuz. As of February this year, roughly 88% of KSA’s daily crude exports of about 7.2 million barrels passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Not only KSA but also some Persian Gulf producers such as the Republic of Iraq and the State of Kuwait are reported to have cut output after export routes were blocked and storage capacity ran short. Foreign media estimate that since the outbreak of war with Iran, global crude oil production has fallen by around 6%.
■ Red Sea ‘Houthi risk’ means it is no safe haven
The Red Sea shipping route is not safe either. In and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where the Red Sea meets the Indian Ocean, Houthi rebels from the Republic of Yemen, backed by Iran, are active. Since the outbreak of the Gaza War, they have attacked vessels linked to Israel and Western countries, causing major disruption to the maritime industry.
On the 10th, United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth asserted, "At present, Iran’s proxy forces such as Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels, and Hamas are effectively out of the fight." However, Middle Eastern outlet Al Jazeera reported on the 6th that "the Houthi rebels could indirectly support Iran via the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait." Al Jazeera noted, "In recent years, the Houthi rebels have demonstrated their ability to use this area as a pressure point through attacks and threats against commercial vessels." It continued, "In such a scenario, the Houthi rebels could disrupt international supply chains and send both political and military messages without engaging Israel directly," adding, "This aligns with the attack strategy that targeted the Red Sea shipping route during the Gaza War."
whywani@fnnews.com Hong Chae-wan Reporter