Early End or Stalemate? The ‘Iran War’ Scenarios Grow More Complicated

On the 9th (local time), United States of America (U.S.) President Donald Trump said the war with the Islamic Republic of Iran would end early, and global financial markets quickly calmed on the 10th. Even so, the outlook remains highly uncertain. Depending on how the conflict develops, conditions could shift abruptly. The Islamic Republic of Iran, for its part, reaffirmed its resolve to keep fighting soon after Trump’s remarks.
The Financial Times (FT) on the 10th laid out five scenarios, based on expert analysis, for how the war involving the Islamic Republic of Iran might progress.
■ Early end to the war
One strong possibility is that Trump, facing inflationary pressure from surging oil prices, declares victory and ends the war regardless of the actual outcome. In this scenario, he unilaterally announces that "the objectives have been achieved" and winds down military operations. The calculation would be driven by fears that if Democrats capture Congress in the November midterm elections, he could face impeachment.
Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said, "The Islamic Republic of Iran could, through a consistent strategy, pressure Trump into declaring an early end to the war." Tehran is striking at U.S. Gulf allies such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to stoke regional instability, while trying to deplete U.S. and Israeli interceptor missile stockpiles. It is also ratcheting up tensions around the Strait of Hormuz to push oil prices higher, a tactic meant to squeeze Trump ahead of the elections. Doran explained that the Islamic Republic of Iran is exerting maximum pressure on the United States.
■ The Venezuela model
Another scenario mirrors what the United States of America (U.S.) attempted in Venezuela in January: remove the core leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran and replace it with a pro-U.S. or at least cooperative figure. However, Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at the International Crisis Group (ICG), argued that this is unlikely in practice. The Islamic Republic of Iran has already positioned Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, son of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as his successor and has hardened its will to resist, leaving little room for U.S. leverage. Vaez also noted that it would be difficult to find an "Iranian version of Delcy Rodríguez"—a figure within the regime willing to pivot toward cooperation under U.S. pressure. Rodríguez, the vice president of Venezuela, shifted toward collaboration with Washington amid intense U.S. pressure.
■ Stalemate
A third scenario is a prolonged stalemate, in which the Islamic Republic of Iran holds out and the war grinds on without a decisive outcome. Despite the overwhelming military superiority of the United States of America (U.S.), the Iranian system would endure and continue to mount counterattacks. The U.S. has previously withdrawn from Vietnam and Afghanistan after facing sustained resistance. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group (ICG) predicted that if the Islamic Republic of Iran keeps resisting, the conflict could turn into a war of attrition that drags on until one side finally yields.
■ Iraq-style survival
There is also the possibility that the regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran does not collapse but survives in a severely weakened form, much like Saddam Hussein’s Republic of Iraq. In this scenario, Tehran would lose much of its influence over groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in the Republic of Yemen, yet maintain enough internal control to survive in a state of international isolation. Emile Hokayem of The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said the Islamic Republic of Iran will do whatever it takes to preserve the regime and is likely to retain the capacity to impose economic costs on the West, for example by continuing attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Michael Doran of the Hudson Institute added that even if the regime were to fall, as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) once did, the result could still be an authoritarian state in which the old power structure remains intact and only the façade changes. Just as former KGB officers reinvented themselves as business tycoons, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which now dominates the Iranian economy, could tighten its grip on financial resources and continue to control the country from behind the scenes.
■ Civil war and fragmentation
The worst-case scenario is that the central government loses control and the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran is carved up. As a multiethnic state, Iran could splinter under the pressure of armed minority groups in different regions backed by outside powers, leaving the country in tatters. Afghanistan and the Republic of Iraq, both invaded by the United States of America (U.S.), have already gone down this path. If the central government in Tehran is neutralized, warlords based on minority communities such as the Kurdish people in the northwest and the Baloch people in the southeast could emerge.
A repeat of the chaos that engulfed the Republic of Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003 would be the truly worst outcome. Once Hussein’s central government collapsed, Iraq descended into bloody conflict among Sunnis, Shiites, and the Kurdish people, and extremist groups such as Islamic State (IS) rose in the resulting power vacuum. Analysts warn that if the powerful centripetal force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Islamic Republic of Iran were to disintegrate, armed factions could rush to fill the vacuum and plunge the country into a prolonged civil war.


dympna@fnnews.com Song Kyung-jae Reporter