U.S.–Iran War: Iranian Missile Launches Plunge 90% – Will Normalization of the Strait of Hormuz Come Sooner Than Expected?

Missile launches across the Islamic Republic of Iran have recently dropped sharply. In the early phase of the U.S.–Iran war, Iran’s barrages of ballistic and cruise missiles posed a major threat to the West, but that offensive has now slowed. Military research institutes around the world are offering varied analyses of what is behind this shift and when the Strait of Hormuz might return to normal.■ Missile launches down 90%: the fall of the “underground cities”According to reconnaissance data from The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the United States Department of Defense (DoD), during the first week of the war the Islamic Republic of Iran fired an average of 150 to 200 missiles per day at the State of Israel and U.S. military bases. As of March 2026, however, that figure has plunged to just 10 to 20 missiles per day, a drop of nearly 90%.
Most analysts attribute this steep decline not to a lack of will in the Islamic Republic of Iran, but to “physical limits.” The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) stated in a recent report that “rather than destroying Iran’s ‘missile cities’ outright, U.S. and Israeli forces have focused precision-guided bunker-buster bombs on sealing off the tunnel entrances and ventilation shafts that mobile transporter erector launchers (TELs) use to surface.” CSIS added, “Underground bases once considered safe havens have instead become vast concrete tombs where TELs and missiles are being buried.”
Some observers still argue that the recent sharp reduction in missile launches also reflects a deliberate stockpiling strategy by Iran’s military leadership as it prepares for a prolonged war.■ U.S. confidence in “normalizing the strait” and the limits of dronesIn the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy supply route, the Islamic Republic of Iran has deployed thousands of suicide drones and high-speed boats to compensate for gaps in its missile forces. Yet United States Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) has expressed confidence about an early return to normal operations, stating, “Iran’s drone capabilities are already well within the scope of our defensive systems.”
According to reporting by The Washington Post (WP), U.S. forces are disabling Iranian drones’ electronic circuits using high-power microwave (HPM) weapons mounted on warships and an upgraded version of the Phalanx Close-In Weapon System (CIWS). The DoD has stated, “The waves of drone attacks are serious, but they are far from sufficient to break U.S. naval control of the sea,” and has formally announced plans to rapidly restore supply routes through the convoy mission known as Operation Sentinel 2.0.■ Iran isolated amid strategic silence from China and RussiaThe direct military intervention by Russia and China that the Islamic Republic of Iran had hoped for has not materialized. The New York Times noted, “Russia is so preoccupied with sustaining its front lines in Ukraine that it has been unable to provide Iran with more than outdated air-defense systems, while China, wary that instability in the Middle East will drive up its own energy import costs, has limited itself to diplomatic rhetoric.”
At the outset of the current Middle East war, Russia condemned U.S. and Israeli airstrikes as a “dangerous gamble” and “a hunt for the leader of a sovereign state,” and it officially offered condolences over the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Fu Cong, China’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, told the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that the strikes had “sharply worsened the regional situation,” voicing deep concern and calling for an immediate halt to military action.
This “keeping a distance” by China and Russia is a painful blow to Iran’s leadership. Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported that “the lukewarm stance of friendly countries is putting the axis of Islamic resistance at risk,” revealing a sense of internal dismay. Mossad, the Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations, has reportedly been picking up signs inside Iran of eroding weapons stockpiles and growing discontent within the armed forces due to economic hardship.■ Global think tanks’ outlook on normalizing the Strait of HormuzMilitary research institutes around the world are sharply divided over when the Strait of Hormuz, the key artery for global energy supplies, will fully return to normal.
CSIS is optimistic, arguing that U.S. high-power microwave electronic warfare systems are effectively blocking Iranian drones and predicting that 80% of the main shipping lanes will be restored within 90 days.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) cautions that although Iran’s missile launches have declined, its use of naval mines and stealthy high-speed boats for a “guerrilla-style shadow war” at sea could keep shipping risks elevated for more than six months.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) places more weight on a phased reopening of the strait based on mediation proposals from China and Russia, rather than on a purely military solution.
As Iran’s missile capabilities are degraded and the limits of its maritime drones become clearer, many analysts now believe the Strait of Hormuz could normalize sooner than initially expected. However, the risk remains that Iranian brinkmanship during this process could trigger sudden spikes in oil prices.
For South Korea, which relies heavily on this route for its oil and gas imports, it is far too early to relax. Experts say the Republic of Korea (ROK) must safeguard its economic security through thorough and practical contingency planning until the turbulence in the Middle East subsides.
wangjylee@fnnews.com Reporter Lee Jong-yoon Reporter