How a War with Iran Could Unfold: Five Scenarios

[The Financial News]


U.S. President Donald Trump said on the 9th (local time) that a war with the Islamic Republic of Iran would end early, and financial markets quickly calmed on the 10th. Even so, the outlook remains highly uncertain.
The Islamic Republic of Iran, however, vowed to fight on immediately after Trump’s remarks.
This time as well, Trump’s so‐called "Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO)" tendency—a mocking nickname suggesting he always backs down in fear—helped steady markets, but conditions on the battlefield could still cause sharp swings.
On the 10th, the Financial Times (FT) presented five scenarios from experts on how a future war with the Islamic Republic of Iran could play out.

In the first scenario, Donald Trump, facing inflationary pressure from surging oil prices, declares victory regardless of the actual outcome and brings the war to an end.
If Democrats win control of Congress in the midterm elections this November, Trump—fearful of being pushed toward impeachment—could unilaterally announce that "the objectives have been achieved" and wind down military operations.
Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said, "The Islamic Republic of Iran has a very consistent strategy," arguing that Tehran could pressure Trump into declaring an early end to the war.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is striking the United States’ Gulf (Persian Gulf region) allies such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to stir regional instability, while trying to deplete U.S. and Israeli interceptor missile stockpiles. It is also ratcheting up tensions around the Strait of Hormuz to push oil prices higher, a tactic aimed at pressuring Trump ahead of the elections.
Doran explained that the Islamic Republic of Iran is exerting maximum pressure on the U.S.

The second scenario envisions the U.S. removing the Iranian leadership and replacing it with a pro‐U.S. or at least cooperative figure, similar to what Washington attempted in Venezuela.
As with the operation earlier this year that sent special forces to oust President Nicolás Maduro, this would mean eliminating hardliners in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
However, Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said this scenario is unlikely in practice.
Unlike Venezuela, the Islamic Republic of Iran has already positioned Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the next leader and is reinforcing its resolve to resist, leaving little room for the U.S. to exploit internal divisions.
Vaez also predicted that it would be difficult to find an "Iranian version of Delcy Rodríguez" willing to cooperate with Washington. Rodríguez, now Venezuela’s vice president, shifted toward cooperation under U.S. pressure.

The third scenario is that the Islamic Republic of Iran holds out and the war sinks into a prolonged stalemate.
Despite the U.S.’s overwhelming military superiority, the Iranian system survives and continues to mount counterattacks. Tehran is hardening its determination to resist.
In Vietnam and Afghanistan, the U.S. ultimately withdrew after facing sustained resistance over many years.
Vaez of the ICG predicted that if the Islamic Republic of Iran keeps up its resistance, the conflict could turn into a war of attrition that drags on until one side finally gives in.

Another possibility is that the Iranian regime does not collapse but, like Saddam Hussein’s Republic of Iraq, survives in a severely weakened form.
In this scenario, Tehran would lose its influence over groups such as Hezbollah in the Lebanese Republic (Lebanon) and the Houthis in the Republic of Yemen, yet maintain internal control and continue to exist in a state of international isolation.
Emile Hokayem of The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said the Islamic Republic of Iran will do whatever it takes to preserve its system, and predicted it would retain the ability to impose economic costs on the West—for example, by continuing to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Doran of the Hudson Institute suggested that even if the regime were to fall like the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), the existing power structure could remain in place and merely change its outward appearance, becoming another authoritarian state. Just as former Committee for State Security (KGB) officers turned into businessmen, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which now dominates Iran’s economy, could keep its grip on the country’s financial lifelines and effectively control the country.

The worst‐case scenario is that the central government loses control and the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran is carved up. As a multiethnic state, Iran could be torn apart by armed minority groups in different regions backed by outside powers, leaving the country in tatters.
Afghanistan and the Republic of Iraq, which the U.S. invaded, followed this path.
After invading Afghanistan, the U.S. installed a pro‐U.S. government in the capital, Kabul, but the central authorities had little power in the mountainous areas and rural villages controlled by the Taliban. In the end, the U.S. fled Afghanistan, leaving much of its equipment behind.
If the central government in the Islamic Republic of Iran is similarly weakened, warlords based among minority groups such as the Kurds in the northwest and the Baloch people in the southeast could emerge.
A repeat in the Islamic Republic of Iran of the chaos that engulfed the Republic of Iraq after the 2003 U.S. invasion toppled the Saddam Hussein regime would be the worst possible outcome.
When Saddam Hussein’s central government collapsed, the Republic of Iraq was torn by bloody clashes among Sunni Islam, Shia Islam and the Kurds, and extremist groups such as Islamic State (IS) rose in the resulting vacuum.
Analysts warn that if the powerful unifying force of the IRGC in the Islamic Republic of Iran were to crumble, armed factions could rush to fill the power vacuum, plunging the country into a prolonged civil war.


dympna@fnnews.com Song Kyung-jae Reporter