"KOSPI Will Crash Tonight"... Wall Street Bear Who Warned of a Semiconductor Bubble Says, "I Was Right"

[Financial News] Heightened geopolitical risks, including airstrikes by the United States of America (U.S.) on the Islamic Republic of Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have driven sharp declines in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) and other major global stock markets. Against this backdrop, Marko Kolanovic, a former JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief strategist long known as one of Wall Street’s leading pessimists, is drawing attention by stressing that his predictions have come true.
On the 3rd (local time), Kolanovic claimed on his X (formerly Twitter) account, "I warned about the date of the war, I said the Nikkei 225 index and KOSPI would crash, and I also already said that the Strait of Hormuz would be 'closed.'"
He went on to criticize investors, saying, "I advised people not to trust Monday’s rebound in the U.S. stock market, but most still chose to wear blinders and believe that 'nothing will happen.'"
Since February 20, Kolanovic has repeatedly warned on X about the possibility of a collapse in the KOSPI market. He argued, "The South Korean stock market has doubled while the U.S. stock market is falling," adding, "Money squeezed out by Donald Trump and spent by U.S. hyperscalers on capital expenditures is leaving the United States and flowing into South Korea."
On the 25th, he further cautioned about a market bubble, saying, "It took 40 years for the KOSPI to rise from 1,000 to 2,000, but it has jumped 4,000 points in just a few months, which is equivalent to more than 100 years of historical average returns." He added, "There is a very high chance that investors buying now will never see these levels again in their lifetime."
The next day, he highlighted the risk of buying at the top in the semiconductor market conditions that had driven the KOSPI rally. He argued, "There is a significant possibility that the nearly 4% surge in the KOSPI last night was a blow-off top (blow-off-top)," pointing out that the index rose on the back of strong earnings from Nvidia Corporation even as Nvidia Corporation’s own share price fell. At that time as well, he asserted, "There is a chance that the KOSPI will crash tonight."
In particular, he underscored that his analysis was correct by directly noting that the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (ticker: EWY), a major U.S.-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Korean equities, was plunging 12% in pre-market trading.
Kolanovic built a reputation for high accuracy in forecasting moves in the U.S. stock market while working as a J.P. Morgan strategist. However, his calls began to miss the mark when he turned bullish during the 2022 market downturn and then stayed bearish through the subsequent bull market. He stepped down as a J.P. Morgan strategist in July 2024 and is now active mainly on social networking service (SNS) platforms.
bng@fnnews.com Kim Hee-sun Reporter