US and Russia Freed from 'Nuclear Shackles'... Asia Faces Renewed 'Unlimited Arms Race' [Military World]

With the end of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) and the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), the mechanisms for nuclear arms control between the two major nuclear powers, the United States of America (US) and the Russian Federation, have effectively disappeared. After the US deployed intermediate-range missiles in the Republic of the Philippines and Japan moved to strengthen its ballistic missile defense, the spark of an arms race that began in Europe is now spreading across the entire Asia-Pacific region (APAC). The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which had been the last remaining nuclear arms control pillar between Washington and Moscow, officially expired on the 5th of last month. Since it was signed in 2010, the treaty had limited both countries’ nuclear warheads and delivery systems for 35 years, but the war in Ukraine prompted the Russian Federation to suspend implementation, and the failure to extend the agreement has reopened an era of unlimited nuclear competition.
Earlier, in 2019, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) was terminated, lifting the ban on developing ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. Now that New START has also vanished, the US and the Russian Federation no longer have a formal basis to inspect each other’s nuclear facilities or cap their arsenals. This is becoming a fuse for an arms buildup that runs from so-called "tactical" nuclear weapons to full-fledged "strategic" nuclear forces. Analysts note that tensions originating in the Middle East and Europe are spilling over into Asia, accelerating a "missile standoff" across APAC.
In April last year, the US deployed the Typhon missile launch system, a ground-launched intermediate-range missile system, to Luzon Island in the northern Republic of the Philippines. This was the first ground-based intermediate-range missile the US had stationed in the Indo-Pacific region since the INF Treaty was scrapped. Because this deployment brings mainland China and the Taiwan Strait directly within range, it is further heightening military tensions between Washington and Beijing.
In step with the deployment of US offensive assets, Japan is moving beyond Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) and, starting this year, is putting long-range missiles such as an upgraded Type 12 surface-to-ship missile into operational service to build a more robust "counterstrike capability" posture. In particular, by stationing Type 12 missile units in areas such as the Nansei Islands near Taiwan, Tokyo is solidifying a containment network around China. This goes beyond responding to the threat from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and is seen as part of an "Asian missile shield" designed to protect Japan amid intensifying missile competition among the US, the Russian Federation, and China. As great powers enter this "unregulated era" of rivalry, the security environment surrounding the Korean Peninsula is facing unprecedented uncertainty. Analysts therefore view the end of New START as a turning point that dramatically increases nuclear unpredictability around the Korean Peninsula. Military experts argue that it is now time for the Republic of Korea to demonstrate the credibility of extended deterrence by making the U.S.-ROK Nuclear Planning Group function in a truly practical way. In a recent security assessment, The Asan Institute for Policy Studies stated, "In a situation where missile threats from the North Korea–China–Russia grouping are becoming more layered and sophisticated, building an Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) system through trilateral cooperation among the Republic of Korea, the United States, and Japan is not a choice but a matter of survival," adding, "Only when the Republic of Korea secures interoperability and completes a robust deterrence-by-denial posture will it be able to withstand military pressure from neighboring countries and secure strategic autonomy."