Khamenei’s Death Certain to Affect April North Korea–US Summit... Kim Jong Un Unlikely to Sleep Easy

[The Financial News] Whether a North Korea–United States summit can take place in April is now directly affected by the U.S. strike on the Islamic Republic of Iran. President Donald Trump concluded that nuclear talks with Iran would not be easy and therefore launched a surprise attack on February 27–28 aimed at changing Iran’s leadership. Through this move, Trump made clear that he will never tolerate nuclear weapons in so‐called rogue states. If Iran, an ally of North Korea, undergoes regime change under U.S. attack, the sense of crisis for Kim Jong Un, President of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, is expected to surge.
According to diplomatic sources on the 1st, prospects for a nuclear deal between North Korea and the U.S. look even dimmer than those for Iran, suggesting difficult negotiations ahead. Kim Jong Un firmly rejected denuclearization during the 9th Workers’ Conference, which ran for a week starting on the 19th of last month. Instead, he declared that North Korea would further strengthen its nuclear capabilities. In doing so, he flatly turned down the Lee Jae-myung administration’s proposals for phased denuclearization and nuclear arms reduction.
Even so, Kim Jong Un has hinted that he is open to talks with the U.S., on the condition that Washington does not threaten his regime. Some observers believe contact between the two sides has already begun. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ North Korea Nuclear Negotiation Team, which met with officials at The White House last week, said, "There is no new development such as working-level contact between North Korea and the U.S." The team also assessed that the U.S. has not yet made concrete preparations for North Korea–U.S. talks.
Trump is expected to first invite Kim Jong Un to talks without preconditions and draw him to the negotiating table. Once there, Trump is likely to suddenly demand complete denuclearization. The U.S. has long been most concerned about the possibility that North Korea’s nuclear technology could spread to countries such as the Islamic Republic of Iran.
If denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S. fail to produce results, tensions on the Korean Peninsula will inevitably rise. The Lee Jae-myung administration has repeatedly pledged not to threaten the North Korean regime, but the Trump administration has not yet formally agreed to that stance.
However, the likelihood of a large-scale U.S. attack on North Korea similar to the one on Iran is considered low. Washington would first need South Korea’s consent and would also have to accept the risk of a clash with China. The U.S. strike on the Islamic Republic of Iran succeeded thanks in part to the active participation of the State of Israel, but on the Korean Peninsula it would be difficult for United States Forces Korea (USFK) to act unilaterally in a way that undermines the ROK-US Alliance. Nevertheless, North Korea has declared that it will permanently exclude South Korea from the Korean nation, pushing itself further down a path of self-destruction.
There are also fears that a nuclear war could break out if North Korea retaliates against a U.S. attack. Chung Dong-young, Minister of Unification (MOU), has repeatedly stressed the need for negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear program, saying, "North Korea is one of the three countries capable of striking the United States." The three countries he referred to are Russia, China, and North Korea.
North Korea is estimated to possess fewer than 10 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and as many as 50 nuclear warheads. Its nuclear warhead stockpile has grown rapidly in recent years. According to estimates by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) and others, North Korea has increased its holdings of more than 90% highly enriched uranium to about 2,000 kilograms. Typically, about 15–20 kilograms of highly enriched uranium are required for one nuclear weapon. Two thousand kilograms is enough material to build roughly 100 nuclear weapons.

rainman@fnnews.com Kim Kyung-soo Reporter