Khamenei’s Death Shakes Financial Markets: Will Oil Break Above $100? [U.S. Strike on Iran]

Financial News reported that global energy and financial markets are swinging sharply after the United States and Israel carried out strikes on Iran and news broke of the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Growing fears that instability in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies are fueling expectations of a sharp rise in international oil prices. In particular, reports that Iran has moved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s seaborne crude passes, have prompted some analysts to predict that oil could climb to $100 a barrel.
On the 28th (local time), the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iran, which was hit by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, closed the Strait of Hormuz and halted vessel traffic.
Ebrahim Jabbari, a senior IRGC commander, told Al Mayadeen TV that "following the invasion of Iran, the Revolutionary Guard is enforcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz," according to a report by TASS Russian News Agency (TASS).
Agence France-Presse (AFP) also reported that Iran’s Tasnim News Agency said, "The Revolutionary Guard has warned various vessels that, due to the tense situation in the strait caused by the U.S. and Israeli military aggression and Iran’s response, it is currently not safe to transit the strait."
The United States, in turn, advised commercial ships to avoid the Gulf region after the strikes on Iran, AFP reported.
The Strait of Hormuz, located at the mouth of the Gulf region (Persian Gulf), is the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, accounting for 20–30% of global seaborne crude oil shipments.
International oil prices had already risen about 20% this year amid mounting tensions between the United States and Iran.
Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, gained about 2.5% in the previous session to close at $72.48 a barrel, the highest settlement price since July last year.
Because international oil futures markets are closed over the weekend, it is difficult to gauge the immediate market reaction. However, on a retail trading platform operated by IG Group, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose to $75.33 a barrel, about 12% above the previous close. Some analysts say prices could surge to $100 if the conflict spreads to surrounding areas.
As risk-off sentiment intensified, cryptocurrencies weakened. Bitcoin at one point fell 3.8% to $63,038 before rebounding to around $65,000. Ether (Ethereum) also dropped 4.5% to $1,836, then traded around $1,950.
Cryptocurrency data provider CoinGecko estimated that roughly $128 billion in market capitalization—about 185 trillion won—was wiped out from the digital asset market immediately after the airstrikes.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on the 28th (local time) that Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, had died.
jashin@fnnews.com Shin Jin-ah Reporter