[Gangnam District Perspective] The Prolonged Drought in Housing Supply in Seoul

In the past, residents could move into a new apartment two to three years after construction began. Recently, however, tighter environmental and safety standards have pushed the average construction period to at least 36 months. Given this longer timeline of at least three years, apartments that broke ground in 2023 are now starting to be occupied one after another.
What, then, does the data on housing starts, which directly determine move-in timing, tell us about the future? In the case of Seoul, the conclusion is that a "supply drought" will persist through 2029. It is a reality that cannot be avoided.
Consider the statistics from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. The number of apartment housing starts in Seoul was 27,426 units in 2023, 21,821 units in 2024, and 27,134 units in 2025. Last year’s figure was up 24 percent from the previous year, but the total has stayed below 30,000 units for three consecutive years. By contrast, the average annual number of apartment starts over the previous five years (2018–2022) was 43,189 units. In other words, the volume of new starts over the past three years has fallen to about half that level. The trend is similar for total housing starts in Seoul when non-apartment units are included. Despite the government’s fast-track supply initiatives, there has been little improvement in the number of new row houses and multi-family units breaking ground.
According to MOLIT, total housing starts in Seoul came to 33,305 units in 2023, 26,066 units in 2024, and 32,119 units in 2025. These figures fall far short of the past five-year average of around 68,000 units per year.
The government is acutely aware that more supply is needed. Following last year’s September 7 Real Estate Measures, it unveiled the Jan. 29 Housing Plan this year, laying out a blueprint to develop idle sites in the urban core and supply 60,000 housing units. The Jan. 29 Housing Plan, which includes development schemes for key locations in Seoul and the greater metropolitan area such as Yongsan District, Taereung Country Club, and LetsRun Park Seoul, is a flagship project that the government has been preparing for a long time.
However, while this plan sends an important supply signal, it is far from enough to put out the immediate fire. Most of the 60,000 units targeted by the government are not scheduled to start construction until 2028. Taking into account a minimum three-year construction period, full-scale move-ins would not begin until around 2031 at the earliest.
Even when compared with the appropriate annual supply of apartments in Seoul, recent housing starts are weak. The usual benchmark is 40,000 to 50,000 units a year. Recent research, which factors in the growth of single-person households, estimates that Seoul needs a net increase of roughly 63,000 housing units per year. Government analysis also projects that the number of single-person households in Seoul will continue to rise for the time being.
By their nature, supply measures come with a built-in limitation: it takes a considerable amount of time for them to translate into actual construction starts and completions. The current housing market needs faster supply, and this is creating a serious mismatch.
Unlike previous administrations, the new government plans to manage housing supply based on actual construction starts rather than approvals. Yet if we look only at the housing start statistics, unless this year’s starts increase dramatically, Seoul will face a shortage not only of apartments but of overall housing supply at least through 2029. Encouraging multi-home owners to put their properties on the market also matters for boosting supply, because supply includes existing listings as well as new units. But the supply of existing homes is fluid. Until May 9, more listings could come out and help stabilize prices, but after that date there are persistent concerns that, contrary to the government’s intentions, listings could become even more tightly locked up.
The housing market is a living market. It moves according to a web of interests, countless variables, and psychological factors that are hard to capture in statistics. Strong demand-control measures also have clear limits, as past administrations’ records have shown. The only sure prescription for stabilizing home prices is more supply. The government must convince the market that supply will come "faster and in greater volume." If supply measures fail to earn the market’s trust, no remedy will work.
ljb@fnnews.com Reporter