Listings Pile Up in the Gangnam 3 Districts... Transactions Down 18% as Buyers Expect Further Price Drops [Non-Gangnam Areas See Active Deals]

Apartment sale listings in Seoul have jumped after the expiry of the temporary suspension of heavier capital gains tax on owners of multiple homes was confirmed. However, transactions in the southern Seoul area have actually contracted. Analysts say stronger wait-and-see sentiment among buyers and loan regulations focused on high-priced apartments have constrained deals.
On the 22nd, Financial News analyzed data from the Saeol Electronic Civil Service Window, an online civil complaint platform, and conducted a full survey of the 25 districts under the Seoul Metropolitan Government. From January 23, when President Lee Jae-myung first hinted at allowing the heavier capital gains tax on multiple-home owners to expire, through February 19, there were 6,054 applications for land transaction permits over 28 days. This is a slight increase of 1.6% compared with the previous 28-day period (December 26 last year to January 22), when there were 5,958 applications. According to the Asil real estate big data platform, apartment sale listings in Seoul rose from 56,219 to 62,990 over the same period, an increase of 12.0%. In other words, transactions have not kept pace with the surge in listings.
In the Gangnam 3 Districts in particular, applications for land transaction permits actually declined. In Seocho District, applications fell from 195 to 133, a drop of 31.8% (62 cases), marking the steepest decrease. Gangnam District followed, with applications down from 194 to 155, a 20.1% (39-case) decline, while Songpa District saw a decrease from 340 to 312, down 8.2% (28 cases).
By contrast, apartment sale listings in the Gangnam 3 Districts surged over the same period. Asil data show that listings there increased from 17,378 to 20,533, up by 3,155 units, or 18.2%.
In some complexes with a high share of multi-home owners, listings more than doubled. At Songpa Helio City, listings soared from 459 to 905, with around 100 of them classified as fire-sale or distressed listings. Nearby, listings at the Jamsil L’s apartment complex climbed from 68 to 145, up 113%, while those at the Richenze Apartment Complex rose from 112 to 233, an increase of 108%, leading to a buildup of inventory.
The decline in transaction volume despite the rise in listings is seen as a result of buyers waiting on the sidelines in anticipation of even steeper price cuts. According to KB Real Estate, the buyer-seller index for apartments in the 11 Gangnam districts of Seoul stood at 81.8 in the second week of February (as of the 9th), lower than the citywide figure of 85.3. An index below 100 indicates that there are more sellers than buyers.
At the same time, stringent loan regulations and the resulting financial burden have also played a role. In the Gangnam 3 Districts, apartments priced up to 2.5 billion won make up the bulk of high-end properties. Under the October 15 real estate policy, however, the maximum loan amount for homes priced above 2.5 billion won was cut to 200 million won, sharply reducing available financing.
Kim In-man, Director of the Kim Inman Real Estate Economy Research Institute, predicted, "Once the heavier capital gains tax on owners of multiple homes is fully implemented, listings will dry up." He added, "If property holding taxes are raised on top of that, both potential sellers and buyers will disappear, and there is a high possibility that the real estate market will enter an ice age."
act@fnnews.com Choi A-young Reporter