LDP set to win well over a majority in general election; Asahi says ruling coalition could top 300 seats

Tokyo – Seo Hye-jin, correspondent for The Financial News – The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to win a landslide victory in the general election to be held on the 8th, securing well over half the seats in the House of Representatives of Japan. Some projections also suggest that, if the Japan Restoration Party that is part of the governing coalition is included, the ruling camp could surpass the 310 seats needed to initiate constitutional revision.
According to The Asahi Shimbun on the 2nd, an analysis of the mid-campaign landscape based on telephone and online polling of about 370,000 people conducted from October 31 to November 1 indicates that the Liberal Democratic Party is on track to win far more than a simple majority of 233 seats.
The Liberal Democratic Party is projected to secure around 292 seats, within a range of 278 to 306. Before the official campaign period began, the party held 198 seats.
The Japan Restoration Party is expected to win around 32 seats, with estimates ranging from 25 to 38. On this basis, the newspaper reported that the ruling bloc could capture more than 310 seats, or two-thirds of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives of Japan.
If the Liberal Democratic Party secures an absolute stable majority of 243 seats, it would be able to monopolize the chairmanships of standing committees in the House of Representatives of Japan and hold a majority in every committee, giving strong momentum to the administration’s policy agenda.
Furthermore, if the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Restoration Party together exceed the 310-seat threshold required to propose constitutional amendments, observers expect full-fledged debate to begin on revising the long-pending Peace Constitution.
By contrast, the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), formed by the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) and Komeito, the LDP’s former coalition partner, is projected to win around 100 seats, a steep drop from its current 167. The Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), the second-largest opposition party, is expected to maintain its current strength, while among smaller parties Sanseitō and Team Mirai are forecast to make notable gains.
The latest projections are being attributed to strong public support for the Takaichi Cabinet translating directly into votes for the Liberal Democratic Party.
In a separate opinion poll conducted alongside its race projections, The Asahi Shimbun found that the approval rating for the Takaichi Cabinet stood at 57 percent, far outpacing the 25 percent disapproval rating. Support for the Liberal Democratic Party also rose from 25 percent in the previous survey to 33 percent.
A poll conducted by Japan News Network (JNN), part of the TBS Television network, from October 31 to November 1 produced similar results. The approval rating for the Takaichi Cabinet was 69.9 percent—down 8.2 percentage points from the previous survey but still high. Support for the Liberal Democratic Party climbed 5.0 percentage points to 34.7 percent.
Analyzing intended votes in the 11 nationwide proportional representation blocs, The Asahi Shimbun found that 65 percent of respondents who support the Takaichi Cabinet said they would vote for the Liberal Democratic Party. The paper interpreted this as meaning that "the Liberal Democratic Party led by Prime Minister Takaichi is winning support from a majority of cabinet supporters, which has nearly doubled compared with the previous administration."
Takaichi’s popularity is also drawing in voters with no party affiliation. Among these unaffiliated voters, who account for about 40 percent of the electorate, 35 percent named the Liberal Democratic Party as their choice in the proportional representation vote. This was the highest share among all parties and far above the Centrist Reform Alliance’s 19 percent.
However, with only a short time left until election day and the possibility that nationwide polling may diverge from tight races in individual constituencies, analysts say the final outcome will not become clear until vote counting begins on the night of the 8th.

sjmary@fnnews.com Seo Hye-jin Reporter