IMF warns global economy could be shaken if AI boom falters, but says productivity gains would boost growth

According to The Financial News, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the current surge in artificial intelligence (AI) could, if it loses momentum, disrupt the global economy.
On the 19th (local time), the Financial Times (FT) reported that in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF pointed out that the "remarkably resilient" global economy is excessively dependent on AI-driven U.S. IT industries and stock markets.
The IMF noted that IT investment has reached its highest share of U.S. economic output since 2001 and has been driving global growth. It projected that if AI investment declines and IT-related stocks fall, this could drag down the global economy by 0.4 percentage points this year.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said, “If AI fails to deliver the productivity and profitability gains that are currently expected, there is a risk of a market correction.”
He added that while the situation has not yet cooled to the extent seen during the dot-com bubble, there is reason for concern.
At the same time, the IMF offered an optimistic scenario, saying that if AI-driven productivity gains materialize, they could lift global growth by 0.3 percentage points this year and contribute 0.1 to 0.8 percentage points annually over the medium term.
The IMF forecast that the U.S. economy will grow 2.6% this year, outpacing the other Group of Seven (G7) economies, and 2% next year.
Despite U.S. tariff measures and geopolitical tensions, the IMF also struck an upbeat tone on the global outlook, raising its forecast for world growth from 3.1% to 3.3%.
However, it cautioned that any new trade conflicts could dampen economic activity and prolong uncertainty.
Meanwhile, at the World Economic Forum (WEF) that opened on the 19th in Davos, Switzerland, discussions are expected to focus on optimism over U.S. AI investment, concerns about stock market valuations, and threats to institutions such as the Federal Reserve System (Fed) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Another key topic is expected to be U.S. President Donald John Trump’s plan to attend in person for the first time in six years and his threat to impose a 10% tariff on European countries that oppose the incorporation of Greenland.

jjyoon@fnnews.com Yoon Jae-jun Reporter