[Teheran-ro] Leap into the global top four in defense exports hinges on government resolve

There is an old saying about a cunning rabbit having three burrows. That is what the Canadian patrol submarine project, worth up to 60 trillion won, means for President Lee Jae-myung. It is an opportunity that, in addition to the United States, where we are making massive investments as a result of tariff negotiations, and China, where we expect an easing of the THAAD-related restrictions, could even open the way to an alliance with the advanced market of Europe.
The cost-effectiveness of the Hanwha Ocean–HD Hyundai Heavy Industries "one-team" bid has already been acknowledged by the local media. It is assessed to be about 40–50% cheaper than submarines of the same class from France and Germany, while uniquely meeting Canada’s requirements in terms of technology and ability to meet delivery schedules. It is no exaggeration to say that, in terms of corporate capabilities, it has the edge over Germany’s thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS).
The problem is that we are being overwhelmingly outmatched in government-to-government (G2G) cooperation. Germany has put forward Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz to design a whole-of-government "package deal" that links everything from mines to batteries, and has been steadily implementing it since last year.
Germany proposed building the entire battery supply chain within Canada. PowerCo, a subsidiary of the Volkswagen Group, began construction in June 2025 on an electric-vehicle battery plant in Ontario, Canada, with an investment of 7 billion dollars (about 10 trillion won). It is the largest investment in Canada’s history. Mercedes-Benz signed a contract with Rock Tech Lithium in Canada to receive an annual average supply of 10,000 tons of lithium. From their perspective, tying the submarine program to a demand that Hyundai Motor Company build a local plant in Canada is not an excessive ask.
Unless we approach this as a "second MASGA"-level initiative, we will only repeat the debacle of losing the 8 trillion won Polish submarine contract. The scars from the failure to win the Australian frigate contract in 2024 have not even healed yet.
Winning this Canadian submarine contract is a turning point that will determine whether we can move beyond cost-focused defense exports and transform ourselves into a high–value-added defense exporter. Submarines are a star export product in the defense sector, each worth more than 1 trillion won. They can generate more than 100 times the high-value profit of tanks, which go for around 10 billion won per unit.
This is also a crucial moment for realizing the Lee Jae-myung administration’s vision of becoming the world’s No. 4 defense industry power by 2030, after the United States, Russia, and China. It is time for President Lee Jae-myung himself to step forward as a "salesman," rather than leaving everything to the companies. There will be political risk if, despite behind-the-scenes support, we still fail to win the contract, but this is not the time to worry about that. Without the government waging an all-out campaign, it will not be able to secure the cooperation of other companies that are still watching from the sidelines.
ggg@fnnews.com Reporter