Why Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi Is Rushing to Dissolve the House of Representatives

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Financial News correspondent in Tokyo Seo Hye-jin reports that Sanae Takaichi, Prime Minister of Japan, plans to inform senior officials of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on the 14th that she intends to dissolve the House of Representatives of Japan immediately after the Regular Session of the National Assembly, scheduled to convene on the 23rd. Japanese media reported that the most likely timing for voting and ballot counting in the House of Representatives election is early to mid-February. Takaichi aims to capitalize on her Cabinet’s high approval ratings to dissolve the House of Representatives and call a general election, expand the ruling coalition’s seats, and push ahead with active fiscal and security policies.
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According to The Yomiuri Shimbun and other outlets, Takaichi is scheduled to return to Tokyo after completing a shuttle-diplomacy schedule between South Korea and Japan in Nara Prefecture, and in the evening will hold talks at the Prime Minister's Official Residence of Japan with Suzuki Shunichi, Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, and Hirofumi Yoshimura, chief executive of the Japan Restoration Party. She is expected to convey her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives of Japan at that meeting.
Although Takaichi has previously said that “dissolving the House of Representatives early in the Regular Session of the National Assembly is one of the options,” this will be the first time she has officially communicated her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives of Japan to the LDP.
At present, two schedules are being discussed for the House of Representatives general election: official campaigning starting January 27 with voting on February 8, and official campaigning starting February 3 with voting on February 15. Takaichi is reportedly coordinating around the plan for official campaigning to begin on January 27 with voting on February 8.
If this schedule is finalized, the period from the dissolution of the House of Representatives of Japan to voting day would be 16 days, the shortest in Japan’s history.
It will be the first House of Representatives general election in about one year and four months, since October 2024 under the Cabinet of Shigeru Ishiba.
Because Takaichi had repeatedly stressed that she was “focused on ensuring that the public can feel the effects of economic policy,” and had taken a cautious stance toward early dissolution, her decision to dissolve the House of Representatives is being received as a surprise even within the LDP.
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The Yomiuri Shimbun analyzed that Takaichi’s push to conduct the House of Representatives general election in a ‘blitz’ manner is aimed at minimizing the impact on the timetable for deliberating the 2026 fiscal year budget bill.
After a budget bill is submitted to the Regular Session of the National Assembly, it normally takes about two months to pass both the House of Representatives of Japan and the House of Councillors and be enacted. As a rule, the Cabinet ensures that the budget is enacted by the end of March so that there are no problems in securing funds needed for pension payments, Public Assistance (seikatsu hogo), and the salaries of every civil servant.
On December 26 last year, the Takaichi Cabinet approved a 2026 fiscal year budget totaling 122.3092 trillion yen. The plan had been to submit the budget bill on the opening day of the Regular Session of the National Assembly on the 23rd of this month, but if the House of Representatives of Japan is dissolved and a general election is held, submission will be delayed and it will become difficult to have the budget enacted within the fiscal year.
Even if it proves impossible to secure passage of the budget bill within the fiscal year, the Takaichi Cabinet intends to move the election date forward so that the bill can be passed as early as possible. Given the increasingly tense international situation, including developments in Iran, the underlying judgment appears to be that any political vacuum caused by a House of Representatives general election should be kept as short as possible.
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Takaichi plans to use the upcoming general election, backed by high Cabinet approval ratings, to secure a stable majority of seats and rapidly strengthen her grip on state affairs.
At present, the combined number of seats held by the ruling LDP and the Japan Restoration Party in the House of Representatives of Japan barely reaches the majority threshold of 233, and in the House of Councillors they form only a minority ruling bloc, making the administration’s footing unstable. The active fiscal policy and measures to strengthen information-gathering and analysis capabilities that the prime minister is pursuing are being criticized by the opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.
The Liberal Democratic Party–Japan Innovation Party coalition agreement includes a number of strongly conservative policies, such as strengthening restrictions on foreign land acquisition and legislating the Use of Former Surnames in Everyday Life, and several of these items have this year’s Regular Session of the National Assembly as their deadline, further deepening confrontation between the ruling and opposition camps.
Within the Takaichi Cabinet, voices have been growing louder that the House of Representatives of Japan should be dissolved while Cabinet approval ratings remain high. Considering that the February–March period of budget deliberations is typically a time when the prime minister and ministers face more questioning in the National Assembly, and the opposition parties intensify their criticism of policies and pursuit of scandals—conditions under which approval ratings tend to fall—the judgment is that delaying the general election would be disadvantageous. According to a public-opinion poll by The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), the Takaichi Cabinet’s approval rating has remained in the 70 percent range for three consecutive months since its launch in October last year.
This week, following a summit with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is also scheduled, giving Takaichi an opportunity to showcase diplomatic achievements in strengthening ties with major countries in Asia and Europe ahead of the general election.
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Japanese media have also reported that China’s hard-line stance toward Japan is one of the factors behind Takaichi’s decision to firmly commit to dissolving the House of Representatives of Japan.
Relations between Japan and China have rapidly cooled following Takaichi’s remarks suggesting possible involvement in the event of a contingency in Taiwan. On the 6th, China announced export bans on dual-use items targeting Japan.
Nikkei reported that “there is an analysis that China, through its hard-line policy toward Japan, is trying to gauge how long the Takaichi Cabinet will last,” and added, “If Takaichi wins the House of Representatives election and gains a foothold for a long-term administration, China may ease its stance toward the Takaichi Cabinet.”
sjmary@fnnews.com Seo Hye-jin Reporter