Semiconductors Take Half the Pie... As Concentration Risks Grow, ‘Post-Semiconductor’ Sectors Emerge

[Financial News] The dominance of semiconductors in the domestic stock market is approaching its peak.
According to the securities industry on the 14th, out of the total KOSPI market capitalization of 3,708 trillion won, the semiconductor sector accounts for 1,390 trillion won, representing a 37.5% share. In terms of 12‐month forward net profit, semiconductors generate 173 trillion won out of the KOSPI’s total 350 trillion won, taking up 49.5% of total earnings. With a single sector now capturing roughly half of the market’s profits, investors are becoming increasingly wary of excessive concentration in semiconductors.
There have been periods in the past when semiconductors led the market. However, the latest figures are exceptional even compared with previous peaks. The semiconductor share of total market capitalization is about 8.4 percentage points higher than the 2020 peak, and its share of net profit exceeds the previous record high by more than 9 percentage points. This has led to interpretations that the market has entered a structurally overheated phase, going beyond a simple cyclical recovery.
This semiconductor concentration is directly driven by a sharp surge in Dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) prices. Spot prices for DRAM have climbed above 21 dollars, far exceeding the long‐term trend level of around 7.9 dollars. Contract prices are also around 9.3 dollars, above trend. The rapid price spike has quickly lifted earnings expectations, and profit forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have risen steeply since October last year. Based on current market consensus, 12‐month forward net profit is estimated at 102.5 trillion won for Samsung Electronics and 71.8 trillion won for SK Hynix.
The concern is that if this semiconductor‐driven rally continues, the overall market structure could become locked into an excessive dependence on a single sector. Lee Sang-hyun, a researcher at Meritz Securities Co., Ltd., pointed out, “As semiconductors take up most of the pie in the market, other sectors may end up being relatively neglected.”
Against this backdrop, there is growing analysis that shipbuilding and machinery are emerging as new leading sectors excluding semiconductors. Looking at sectoral market‐cap weights within the KOSPI excluding semiconductors, health care accounts for 9.0%, shipbuilding 8.9%, automobiles 8.6%, banks 8.1%, and machinery 7.2%. In particular, shipbuilding and machinery have been rapidly expanding their share of the market since 2024.
Changes are also evident in the performance of individual stocks. In the machinery sector, Hyosung Heavy Industries has seen its market capitalization jump 353% in 2025, while Doosan Enerbility has surged 329%, leading the sector’s weight expansion. In shipbuilding, Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. has risen 204% and HD Hyundai 138%, showing strong share‐price momentum.
Indeed, among the stocks with the highest projected net profit growth for 2026, many are shipbuilding and machinery names such as Doosan Enerbility, Hyosung Heavy Industries, HD Hyundai Electric Co., Ltd., Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., and HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. (HDKSOE). All of these are large‐cap stocks with market capitalizations of 10 trillion won or more, and their net profits in 2026 are expected to grow by double‐digit percentages.
Lee Sang-hyun noted, “With the semiconductor share of market capitalization and earnings having surpassed historical peaks, shipbuilding and machinery within the non‐semiconductor universe are continuing a structural trend of weight expansion,” adding, “If there is no abrupt change in the earnings trajectory of these sectors, they are highly likely to maintain their leadership at least through the first half of the year.”

dschoi@fnnews.com Choi Doo-seon Reporter