Will Bitcoin Finally Shed Its ‘Speculation’ Label? Regulatory Big Bang Expected Next Year [Crypto Briefing]

[Financial News] Bitcoin (BTC) is increasingly being recognized not as a ‘speculative asset’ marked by extreme volatility, but as a high-risk macro asset that responds sensitively to macroeconomic variables such as interest rates and liquidity. After surging by triple digits compared to the start of last year and staging a ‘bull run,’ Bitcoin has shown somewhat stabilized price fluctuations this year, oscillating between $80,000 and $100,000. This is attributed to the successful launch of the Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Fund (Bitcoin Spot ETF), pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration, and the trend of institutional investors and large enterprises incorporating Bitcoin and Ethereum into their balance sheets (DAT). Looking ahead, experts predict that next year, crypto assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins will become even more integrated with the traditional financial system, not only through regulation and policy but also via payment infrastructure.■ Bitcoin’s Two-Year Cumulative Return Exceeds 100%According to global financial information platform Investing.com, an analysis of daily Bitcoin prices for 2024–2025 shows that Bitcoin started at $44,183 on January 1 last year and closed at $93,557 on December 31, marking an annual increase of about 112%. In contrast, this year began at $94,560 and, as of today, stands at $89,000, reflecting a correction of around 5%. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s cumulative return over two consecutive years exceeds 110%. This performance is overwhelming compared to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), which rose about 45% over the same period.
Last year, the market was driven by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF in January and the ‘Trump rally’ surrounding the U.S. presidential election in November. In November alone, Bitcoin surged nearly 40%. Notably, on November 6, over 350,000 Bitcoins were traded, setting the highest trading volume of the year.
With the inauguration of President Donald Trump, Bitcoin set out to surpass $100,000 at the start of this year. On January 7, it broke through the $102,000 mark, and on October 6, it reached an all-time high of $126,186 during intraday trading. However, after surpassing $120,000, the market showed signs of ‘peak fatigue’ as investors took profits. Analysts note that the market has been consolidating and establishing a bottom through a correction phase in November and December.
This month, daily Bitcoin trading volumes have ranged from 20,000 to 60,000, indicating relatively stable activity. An official from the crypto industry explained, “Last year, large-scale buying pushed prices higher, but this year, both trading volumes and price ranges have stabilized overall. With circulating supply increasingly held by institutions or long-term holders, even low trading volumes have resulted in limited price volatility.”■ Institutional Holdings in Bitcoin ETFs Surpass 25%Securities industry analysts have also noted that Bitcoin is being reevaluated as an ‘emerging macro asset class’ that moves in response to global institutional liquidity and policy changes.
According to Mirae Asset Securities, institutional investment in U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs has surged. As of the end of the third and fourth quarters this year, institutional exposure to Bitcoin ETFs increased by $33.6 billion from the previous quarter, reaching $38.5 billion. This means that institutional holdings now account for 25.5% of the total ETF circulation.
The qualitative shift in investor profiles is also noteworthy. Not only hedge funds like Millennium Management but also sovereign wealth funds such as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) have steadily increased their holdings. Recently, the Texas State Government invested $5 million in the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT). The Harvard Endowment Fund has also allocated 21% of its listed equity portfolio to Bitcoin ETFs.
Notably, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins are being highlighted as key infrastructure for Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization, including tokenized securities (STO), which is the biggest crypto issue both domestically and internationally. In particular, stablecoins are gaining prominence as reserve currencies that provide liquidity and enable instant settlement within the tokenized finance ecosystem.
Han Jongmok, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, stated, “Companies are beginning to recognize and adopt stablecoins as essential infrastructure connecting the Web3 ecosystem and the real economy. With the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act) likely to take effect next year, we expect to see an explosive increase in cases where companies use stablecoins for payments and remittances without legal risks.”
elikim@fnnews.com Kim Mi-hee Reporter