[Correspondent Column] Korea’s Diplomatic Choices Amid China-Japan Tensions

"This current conflict between China and Japan will not be resolved in the short term. The confrontation may persist until the end of the Sanae Takaichi Cabinet. The situation is even more dangerous because both China and Japan are acting without fully understanding each other's intentions."
A Japanese political expert I met recently responded this way when asked about the direction of the China-Japan conflict. The analysis is that China is already prepared for a prolonged standoff, and Japan is also refusing to back down.
The dispute between the two countries, which began with a statement by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in the National Diet, has continued for a month. On the 7th of last month, Prime Minister Takaichi made remarks in the National Diet suggesting possible intervention in the event of a Taiwan contingency. The following day, Xue Zhen, Consul General of China in Osaka, made an extreme statement, saying, "If you recklessly rush at us, we will have no choice but to sever your filthy necks without a moment's hesitation," igniting a war of nerves between the two countries.
China is pressuring Japan to retract Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks by imposing bans on Japanese seafood imports and issuing advisories against travel and study in Japan. However, Japan is showing no signs of retreat. In fact, it is reported that while some Japanese government officials have engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations with China and recommended that Takaichi retract her comments, the Prime Minister has firmly refused.
Donald Trump, President of the United States of America (U.S.A.), who had been a strong supporter of Prime Minister Takaichi, is now taking a hands-off approach, straining Japan-U.S. relations. There have even been reports that Shigeo Yamada, Japan’s ambassador to the U.S.A., recently requested the Trump administration to express stronger support for Prime Minister Takaichi. Some interpret this as reflecting disappointment within the Japanese government at the lukewarm stance shown by its ally, the U.S.A., amid heightened military tensions between China and Japan. Reports that President Trump advised Prime Minister Takaichi during a phone call last month not to provoke China over the Taiwan issue have further deepened Japan’s sense of frustration.
Japanese experts believe that Prime Minister Takaichi, mindful of her approval ratings, is becoming even more uncompromising in this situation. Some even suggest that she is deliberately provoking controversy for political gain, aiming to rally her support base and justify strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities.
One expert confided, "There is a perception that Prime Minister Takaichi will stop at nothing to achieve her goals." Heightening the crisis provides justification for boosting defense capabilities and strengthens arguments that Japan should also discuss nuclear options in response to nuclear-armed China. For the Takaichi Cabinet, which pursues a 'strong Japan,' there is a view that unless a severe crisis arises, the current situation can be leveraged to its advantage.
However, experts warn that this ongoing confrontation, with both countries unable to accurately gauge each other's intentions, is highly dangerous. Mutual distrust and misunderstanding could create a vicious cycle, escalating the conflict. One expert expressed concern, saying, "If this atmosphere continues, Japanese people will stop going to China, and Chinese people will stop coming to Japan. Even Japanese lawmakers rarely visit China, so they seem to be acting without a real understanding of the situation there."
Past cases heighten this sense of alarm. In the 2010 Senkaku Islands (known as Diaoyu Dao in China) dispute, a collision occurred between a Chinese fishing vessel and the Japan Coast Guard. Both countries failed to fully understand each other's intentions and actions, and media coverage and domestic political pressure rapidly escalated the conflict.
A similar situation occurred in 2013 with the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) dispute in the East China Sea. When China unilaterally established the ADIZ, Japan responded, but both sides misunderstood each other's strategic intentions, prolonging the tension.
This latest case demonstrates that a simple declaration of neutrality is not enough for the Republic of Korea (ROK)’s diplomacy. Even if the ROK advocates balanced diplomacy, it will be difficult to achieve meaningful results unless it takes into account Japan’s political structure and leadership tendencies, as well as China’s long-term strategy. Without a thorough analysis of the internal politics and diplomatic strategies of the other countries, balanced diplomacy may remain merely declarative.
sjmary@fnnews.com Seoh Hye-jin, Tokyo Correspondent Reporter