[Gangnam Perspective] The Return of Conscription Triggered by Europe’s Security Anxiety

By next February, it will have been four years since the war in Ukraine began, yet there has been little progress in negotiations to end the conflict.
Even if the war ends, Europe’s anxiety about the Russian Federation is unlikely to subside. After the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, some European countries reduced defense spending and abolished conscription.
However, when the Russian Federation forcibly annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, European member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) recognized the need to increase defense expenditures.
With the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, strengthening military capabilities became more urgent than ever.
Additionally, as Donald Trump returned to the White House and implemented security policies more focused on containing China, European nations faced the challenge of taking responsibility for their own security, which had previously relied on the United States.
Military authorities in France and the Federal Republic of Germany anticipate that the Russian Federation could be ready to attack Western Europe by 2029 or 2030.
Reflecting growing fears of a potential conflict with the Russian Federation, more European countries have reintroduced conscription this year. Currently, ten European Union (EU) member states have mandatory military service.
Last month, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that a voluntary youth military service system would begin in the middle of next year. Without directly mentioning the Russian Federation, he stated, "The only way to avoid danger is to be prepared." France suspended mandatory military service in 1996 and abolished conscription, which had been in place since the 18th-century French Revolution, during Jacques Chirac’s presidency in 2001.
At a French city council meeting last month, Fabien Mandon, Chief of Staff of the French Army, caused a stir by stating that the French military must become stronger within the next three to four years to prepare for a possible conflict with the Russian Federation, adding, "We must accept the possibility of losing our children."
The Republic of Lithuania reinstated conscription in 2015, the year after the Russian Federation annexed Crimea. The Kingdom of Sweden and Latvia introduced it in 2017 and 2023, respectively.
After nearly 20 years of suspension, the Republic of Croatia revived conscription this year, and Denmark included women in the draft as of July. The service period was also extended from four to eleven months.
Finland, which shares a 1,331-kilometer border with the Russian Federation and was invaded by the former Soviet Union in 1939, has established the largest reserve force system among European nations.
Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, has announced plans to build the strongest military in Europe through a massive increase in defense spending. The German parliament is expected to vote this month on reinstating conscription.
Despite these efforts, it remains uncertain whether European countries will be able to secure the number of troops they aim for. In Europe’s liberal social climate, introducing mandatory military service is not easy. In a French public opinion poll, 73% supported a voluntary military service system, but the approval rate dropped to 60% among those aged 25 to 34.
Generation Z (Gen Z) in Europe has been noted for its weak willingness to serve in the military or fight in the event of war.
Fewer than one-third of EU citizens surveyed said they would fight if their country became involved in a war. Due to the legacy of World War II (WWII), German citizens have little interest in becoming a military power and are deeply opposed to being drawn into war.
European member states of NATO are expected to achieve defense spending of over 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the end of this year, as Donald Trump has consistently demanded. Experts estimate that Europe would need an additional 300,000 troops on top of the current 1.47 million to deter an invasion by the Russian Federation.
Amid growing uncertainty, European countries are struggling to devise ways to build stronger armed forces.
jjyoon@fnnews.com Yoon Jae-joon Reporter