[Correspondent Column] Will Trump's Tariff Experiment Be Halted by Inflation?

Recently, I had a chance encounter with an American in his 50s. It was during the height of the Federal Government Shutdown. As a person with conservative views, he held a negative perspective on immigrants and appeared to be a supporter of Donald Trump. He expressed dissatisfaction with the current economic situation. "It's not easy to make a living. Prices aren't coming down, and ordinary people are going to the supermarket less frequently. I'm even putting off getting a haircut."
I asked if the economic indicators in the United States of America (U.S.A.) were still solid. I also mentioned that President Donald Trump had said the U.S.A.'s economic growth rate would approach 4% in the third quarter this year. He replied bluntly, "The economy for ordinary people just isn't improving." In fact, he seemed to suggest that someone who had only been in the U.S.A. for a few months couldn't possibly understand the real economy just by looking at the numbers.
President Donald Trump's popularity is declining. Various polls show his approval rating at a record low. According to a survey commissioned by Reuters and conducted by Ipsos, President Trump's approval rating was 38%. This is a 9 percentage point drop from the 47% recorded at the start of his second administration, marking the lowest point since then.
The main source of dissatisfaction was inflation.
When asked whether President Trump was managing inflation well, 65% responded negatively. Even among Republican Party (GOP) members, one-third expressed a negative view of his performance in this area. In a poll by Cable News Network (CNN), 72% of Americans said the economic situation was poor, and 61% stated that Trump's policies were making the economy worse. Many respondents in a Fox News poll reported that the prices of groceries, utilities, and other goods had increased compared to the previous year. Half of the respondents blamed President Trump's economic policies.
In fact, inflation has not risen significantly since President Trump returned to office. The inflation rate has been well managed, staying in the high 2% range. Major U.S.A. companies such as Walmart Inc. have chosen to absorb increased costs rather than raise product prices.
Nevertheless, the reason his approval ratings are falling due to economic policy and inflation may be rooted in expectations for President Trump. During former President Joe Biden's term, inflation once soared to 9% due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although it later stabilized in the high 2% range, prices rose by nearly 20% cumulatively during Biden's tenure. President Trump persistently attacked this issue in his bid for re-election. Many Americans believed President Trump would stabilize prices and even bring them down. However, once prices rise, they rarely fall easily. In fact, tariffs have further fueled inflationary pressures.
President Trump now faces urgent challenges. Especially after Zohran Kwame Mamdani was elected Mayor of New York on promises such as rent freezes, expanded free childcare, free bus service, and higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations, anxiety about next year's midterm elections has grown. Even within the GOP, there have been warnings that if President Trump does not respond seriously to the rising cost of living, the party could suffer a major defeat in the upcoming elections.
Ultimately, he reversed the strong tariff policies he had pursued since returning to office. Tariffs on bananas, coffee, and beef were effectively lifted. Notably, tariffs on these products from the Federative Republic of Brazil, with whom relations had been strained due to tariffs, were reduced to zero. It was also reported that tariffs would not be imposed on semiconductor-related products.
The tariffs that President Trump had confidently imposed on the world have now run aground on the obstacle of rising inflation. Americans' faith that he would stabilize prices is wavering. The decline in approval ratings is not just a matter of numbers but stems from diminished expectations. If tariff adjustments fail to deliver results, structural discontent will deepen. Ultimately, the outcome of next year's election will depend on who can ease the burden of everyday expenses for ordinary citizens.
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