Controversy Over 2035 NDC ‘Range-Based Target’... ‘The Lower Limit Will Become the Actual Goal’

The government’s final draft for the 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (2035 NDC), released on the 6th, has sparked controversy as it presents a 'range-based target' rather than a single figure. The government explained that the range was set to account for uncertainties and to balance the interests of industry and civil society. However, many predict that the actual target will ultimately align with the lower end of the range. Concerns have also been raised that the absence of a single standard could lead to unavoidable social conflict during the implementation of future reduction policies.
The government’s final candidate options for the 2035 greenhouse gas reduction target, presented on the 6th, are either 'a 50–60% reduction by 2035 compared to 2018' or 'a 53–60% reduction.' The interpretation is that the government’s use of a range, rather than a specific figure, reflects its failure to bridge the gap between industry and civil society.
A representative from the Ministry of Climate stated, "We presented the target as a range to find a balance amid conflicting opinions," and added, "Recently, the European Union (EU) also set its target as a range of 66.25% to 72.5%."
South Korea is not the only country to set its NDC as a reduction range rather than a single figure. The United States of America (U.S.A.) (61–66% reduction compared to 2005), the European Union (EU) (66.25–72.5% reduction compared to 1990), Canada (45–50% reduction compared to 2005), and Australia (62–70% reduction compared to 2005) have all adopted range-based targets.
Nevertheless, there is widespread concern that the 'lower limit' will become the de facto NDC. At the hearing, discussants from Plan 1.5, Big Wave, the Korean Women's Environmental Network, and the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) criticized, "Among the government’s proposals for the 2035 NDC presented to the public, only the worst and the second-worst options remain."
Hyun Jun-won, Senior Researcher at the Korea Legislation Research Institute (KLRI), pointed out, "Setting the NDC as a range may be an idea needed for submission to the international community, but from a legal perspective, only the lower limit matters, while the upper limit is meaningless and creates an illusion."
Concerns were also raised about future issues. Professor Lee Kyu-jin of Ajou University predicted, "If the NDC is set as a range, there will be further social conflict, such as determining which point within the range should be used as the basis for operating the emissions trading scheme."
Lee Sung-jo, Secretary-General of the National Assembly Forum on Climate Change, said, "If the target is set at 50 or 53% to 60%, budgets will be allocated based on the upper limit of 60%, and if the target is not achieved, unused funds may result. Range-based targets inevitably cause policy confusion within the government." He also pointed out, "Since Article 4, Paragraph 11 of the Paris Agreement allows for upward adjustment of existing NDCs, it should be supplemented in the form of a single target."

aber@fnnews.com Ji-young Park Reporter