US-Korea Summit to Discuss 'Step-by-Step Denuclearization' of North Korea.. 7th Nuclear Test Imminent

[Financial News] Whether President Lee Jae-myung and President Donald Trump will bring up North Korea's 'step-by-step denuclearization' as a joint agenda at the upcoming US-Korea summit has emerged as a new point of interest. The United States has maintained 'complete denuclearization (CVID)' of North Korea as a core principle, leading to conflicts with North Korea.
President Lee stated in an interview with Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun published on the 21st regarding the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, "Step 1 involves freezing nuclear and missile activities, step 2 involves reduction, and step 3 involves denuclearization." President Lee also mentioned, "We could create a path for cooperation among the United States, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, and Japan centered on the new item of Arctic route development." He proposed a plan for international and economic cooperation with North Korea through step-by-step denuclearization.
Cho Hyun, Minister of Foreign Affairs, who has been coordinating the US-Korea summit agenda, mentioned on the 18th at the National Assembly the need for communication between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, Chairman of North Korea's State Affairs Commission, along with North Korea's step-by-step denuclearization plan. Jeong Dong-young, Minister of Unification, also stated last June that he would not demand preemptive denuclearization from North Korea. However, the government maintained that 'step-by-step denuclearization' does not mean recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state.
Despite the expectations of the Lee Jae-myung administration, there is speculation that North Korea, which has demanded recognition as a nuclear state from the international community, might conduct a 7th nuclear test during the US-Korea summit period.
Although there have been many predictions that North Korea would conduct a 7th nuclear test within the year, it has not been executed. If North Korea proceeds with a nuclear test, it will be the first in 7 years and 11 months. North Korea's last nuclear test was the 6th, conducted on September 3, 2017.
Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), mentioned, "(North Korea) cannot rule out the possibility of some form of action next week," expressing concern that "it could even result in a nuclear test." Sid Seiler, Senior Advisor at CSIS, also stated, "It is always important to remember that North Korea, which has a million-strong army, is in its summer training period," adding, "During this period, there are additional displays of military power, missile launches, and artillery firing demonstrations."
There are also claims that a missile base equipped with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and launch equipment has been established in Sinpung-dong, Pyonganbuk-do, 27 km from the North Korea-China border. The CSIS-affiliated Korean Peninsula-focused site 'Beyond Parallel' presented satellite images taken on the 11th of last month as evidence.
Initial analysis of satellite images suggests that a brigade-level unit possessing 6 to 9 Hwasong-15 and 18 ICBMs capable of carrying nuclear warheads and mobile missile launchers is stationed there. North Korea, which is estimated to operate 15 to 20 ballistic missile bases, has never disclosed a missile base to the outside world. Additionally, the issue of handling missile bases has never been addressed in the denuclearization negotiations between North Korea and the United States. 




rainman@fnnews.com Kim Kyung-soo, Seo Young-jun reporters