US Economic Experts, Low Risk of Recession and Inflation This Year, Optimistic About Growth and Employment

[Financial News]  US economic experts see continued economic growth and job creation this year, with a low likelihood of recession and inflation, according to the latest economic outlook survey.
On the 12th (local time), the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) released a quarterly survey showing that economists' outlook on the US economy has improved compared to the April survey, indicating that concerns about economic damage from President Donald Trump's policies have decreased.
In April, economists predicted a 45% chance of a recession in the US this year, but this has dropped to 33% in the latest survey.
The economic growth forecast for the last quarter of this year has also increased from 0.8% to 1%.
This survey was conducted from the 3rd to the 8th in New York's financial district, targeting 69 experts from universities, consulting firms, etc.
Chad Moutray, an economist at the National Restaurant Association, explained, "Despite various headwinds, the US economy is stubbornly showing resilience," adding that while consumers continue to spend, the atmosphere is becoming somewhat cautious.
Over the past three months, the average number of new jobs created per month in the US was 150,000, higher than expected, and the unemployment rate in June fell by 0.1% to 4.1% compared to the previous month.
Also, the weekly unemployment benefits claims are not at a level of significant concern, and both corporate and consumer confidence indices showed an upward trend in June.
The most notable point is that inflation, which was feared due to tariffs on imports, did not occur, and the core price index, excluding volatile food and energy, was 2.8% year-on-year in May, the lowest in four years.
US imports surged by 26% in the first quarter before tariffs were imposed and then plummeted from April.
The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the US, expects that companies will not raise product prices until the inventory imported in a hurry is exhausted.
In this journal survey, it is expected that Trump's tariffs will raise prices by 0.7%, but with the slowdown in energy and housing cost increases, the impact on prices in the second half of this year will not be significant, according to Comerica Bank economist Bill Adams.
Experts predict that by December this year, the unemployment rate will fall to 4.5%, lower than the 4.7% forecast in the April survey.
As a result, the Federal Reserve will have more time to review before cutting rates, and the current benchmark interest rate of 4.25~4.5 is expected to undergo 1~2 cuts within the year, ending at 3.94%.


jjyoon@fnnews.com Yoon Jae-jun Reporter