Attention to Tariff and Performance Variables Amid Policy Momentum... 'Sorting the Wheat from the Chaff' Begins [Weekly Stock Market Outlook]

[Financial News] Next week, the domestic stock market is expected to continue its upward trend centered on leading stocks, supported by policy momentum and abundant standby funds. However, volatility is also expected to increase due to tariff uncertainties and the second-quarter earnings season. The securities industry advised maintaining the proportion of leading sectors while paying attention to tariff risks and the performance of major exporters. The securities industry expects the KOSPI to be in the range of 3000~3250 this week.
According to the exchange on the 13th, the KOSPI closed at 3157.77, up 3.98% from the previous week. Foreigners and individuals led the index rise by net buying 628.6 billion won and 241 billion won, respectively. Institutions net sold 640.7 billion won.
The securities industry expects that policy momentum and the inflow of standby funds will continue to support stock prices next week. It is evaluated that policy issues such as the government's mandatory share buyback legislation, stablecoin experiments, and the creation of RE100 industrial complexes are supporting investment sentiment.
Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "Sorting the wheat from the chaff will begin in earnest, focusing on sectors with policy and performance momentum," and "In a situation where there is abundant standby capital, it is expected that the inflow of funds will continue into sectors and stocks with momentum for stock price increases such as policies."
Tariff negotiations and the performance of major exporters are cited as key variables that will determine the direction of the stock market. Although U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on Korea and deferred it until August 1, there is still hope for negotiations, so the impact on the stock market is analyzed to be limited.
However, it is pointed out that depending on the results of the tariff negotiations, the performance and supply-demand of super-large exporters such as automobiles and semiconductors may change, so caution is needed. Shin Seung-jin, a researcher at Samsung Securities, analyzed, "Due to tariff uncertainties, the earnings estimates for the entire KOSPI are being revised downward," but "if the tariff negotiations are concluded and even the sectors that have been neglected so far rise, the KOSPI can surpass the previous high in 2021 and enter a new level."
Global economic conditions and corporate performance are also variables. Next week, major indicators such as the U.S. June Consumer Price Index (CPI), China's second-quarter GDP, and the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales will be announced. As the second-quarter earnings season begins in earnest, major domestic large-cap stocks such as SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, and Doosan Enerbility are expected to disclose their performance.
Researcher Na Jeong-hwan said, "If the price index due to tariffs in the second quarter comes out high, the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cut may be delayed, which is a risk factor," and "As the earnings forecasts for sectors exposed to tariffs such as automobiles are revised downward during the second-quarter earnings season, there is also a possibility that the earnings forecasts for the KOSPI will be further adjusted downward."   

koreanbae@fnnews.com Bae Hangul Reporter