[Seocho Forum] Another Motive Behind the U.S. Attack on Iran

The United States has conducted a large-scale bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities. Why did the U.S. take such a risky move despite the danger of escalation? It's because there is another motive besides preventing Iran's nuclear armament. It aims to pressure Russia and China using Iran.

Recently, Russia lost its ally Syria and its foothold in the Mediterranean. However, it maintained a comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran. Russia and Iran are major players in natural gas and oil. The two have been cooperating in adjusting international oil prices through the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+). However, with the U.S. joining the Israel-Iran war, this cooperation has become unstable. This could impact Russia's gas and oil-based economy. Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine war could also be adversely affected. Russia is importing a large number of attack drones from Iran. If there is a change in Iran, this trade becomes difficult. Besides, Russia has a lot to think about due to the U.S. bombing of Iran. It's uncertain how Trump's unpredictable actions might drive Russia into a situation. An incident that hints at this occurred. On June 23, 2025, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Putin in Moscow to request support for repairing the Russian-made air defense system destroyed by the airstrike and for restoring nuclear development facilities. However, Putin only made grandiose statements without providing substantial support, indicating he is wary of Trump, the U.S. President.

China is even more severely impacted. Iran is a major energy exporter to China. About 1.7 million barrels of crude oil are sent to China daily. Although this accounts for only 2% of global crude oil transactions, the situation is different for China. More than 90% of Iran's exports are directed to China, accounting for about 15% of China's total crude oil imports. Due to U.S. sanctions, the export price is extremely low. If U.S. interference in Iran increases, China will lose the opportunity to buy Iranian crude oil cheaply and easily. Furthermore, China's Belt and Road Initiative could be severely damaged. Iran has been a key hub for China in the Middle East. China has expanded its influence in the Middle East by mediating relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, exploiting the gap between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. This has also elevated the status of the yuan in the Middle East. However, changes are occurring in this situation. Saudi Arabia, which had an uncomfortable relationship with the U.S., is now improving its relations with the U.S. If Iran becomes unstable, China's influence in the Middle East will be significantly undermined.

Despite this situation, China cannot confront the U.S. Iran, which has become urgent due to the Israel-Iran war, dispatched Foreign Minister Araghchi to China on June 25, 2025. However, like with Russia, China did not promise any significant support. China is currently in a tariff war with the U.S. Supporting Iran in this situation could lead to unforeseen consequences. Moreover, China is keenly aware of the impact of the U.S. bombing of Iran on the Taiwan issue. It is officially known that 41 U.S. troops are stationed in Taiwan. However, on May 15, 2025, U.S. Navy Reserve Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery stated in a congressional hearing that about 500 U.S. troops are stationed in Taiwan, indicating that the U.S. is practically involved in Taiwan's defense. In this situation, China would not want to provoke the U.S. by siding with Iran.

While the U.S. is using Iran to pressure Russia and China, the objectives are different. Regarding Russia, the U.S. is sending a message to end the war with Ukraine quickly and cooperate with the U.S. As Putin hesitates, Trump uses the strong-arm tactic of the Iran card. Regarding China, the U.S. is sending a message that it is difficult to survive if it confronts the U.S. The U.S. is showing that there are many ways to restrain China beyond technology sanctions or tariffs.

Lee Hong, Honorary Professor at Kwangwoon University Business School