If Unified, Lee Jaemyung 44% vs Kim Moonsu 41%.. Floating Voters Increase to 10%

[Financial News] In the last poll before the blackout period when the publication of opinion polls is prohibited, Lee Jaemyung, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, was 9 percentage points ahead of Kim Moonsu, the People's Power candidate, who is in second place. However, if Kim Moonsu becomes the sole conservative candidate, the gap narrows to 3 percentage points.
According to the KBS commissioned Korea Research poll released on the 27th, Lee Jaemyung had 45%, Kim Moonsu 36%, and Lee Junsuk of the Reform New Party had 10%. The percentage of those who said they had no preferred candidate or did not know was 8%.
In a multi-candidate match, simply adding the support rates of Kim Moonsu and Lee Junsuk shows a narrow lead of 1 percentage point over Lee Jaemyung. However, in a hypothetical two-way match assuming conservative candidate unification, the support rate did not reach the simple sum.
If unified with Kim Moonsu, the support rate was 41%, 3 percentage points lower than Lee Jaemyung. If Lee Junsuk steps up, the support rate remains at 34%, widening the gap to 9 percentage points outside the margin of error with Lee Jaemyung.
This is because a significant number of respondents withdrew their support if Kim Moonsu and Lee Junsuk were unified. When Kim Moonsu steps up for a two-way match, 13% said they had no preferred candidate or did not know, and in the case of Lee Junsuk, it was 19%. It is interpreted that the floating voters increase enough to decide the outcome if unified, making it uncertain how the actual votes will flow.
However, the fact that 51% of respondents expressed the opinion of regime change in a question about the perception of this presidential election suggests that Kim Moonsu may have some limitations in expansion if he becomes the sole candidate.
The cited survey was conducted through telephone interviews with 1,000 people nationwide from the 25th to the 27th. The response rate was 21.5%, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

uknow@fnnews.com Kim Yunho Reporter