"Semiconductor Economy in June is Good!" Highest in 15 Years and 4 Months... Post-Election Expectations 'Amplified'

[Financial News] The economic outlook for the electronics and telecommunications equipment industry, centered on semiconductors, recorded the highest level in 184 months (15 years and 4 months) since March 2010. As expectations for an economic rebound centered on the semiconductor and electronics industries grow, the June economic outlook index for major domestic manufacturers also showed the largest increase in 4 years and 4 months. It is interpreted as reflecting expectations for various industrial policies and economic stimulus measures to be newly promoted after the June election, as the US-China tariff war has recently entered a lull. Observations are emerging that corporate sentiment will officially escape the bottom with the June 3 election as a turning point. 
The Korea Economic Association announced on the 27th that as a result of a survey of the Business Survey Index (BSI), which indicates the economic sentiment of companies targeting the top 600 companies based on sales, the June economic outlook rose 9.7 points to 94.7 compared to the previous month. This increase is the largest since March 2023. Although the index still slightly falls below the baseline of 100 (for 3 years and 3 months in a row), it is interpreted as a signal that expectations for economic recovery are growing.

The June manufacturing BSI surged to 96.0, a 16.8-point increase from May (79.2). This is the largest increase in 4 years and 4 months since March 2021 (index 114.0, 19.1-point increase). The electronics and telecommunications equipment, which includes the semiconductor industry, led the overall index rebound. The June BSI for the electronics and telecommunications equipment industry was 123.5, recording the highest level in 15 years and 4 months since March 2010 (126.6). Hankyung Association analyzed that the market supply and demand are improving due to pre-orders from overseas customers to avoid tariff impacts, and improved demand for computers and mobiles due to China's domestic demand stimulation measures, while the uncertainty in US-China trade has somewhat eased, leading to a sharp rebound in corporate sentiment. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, actual semiconductor exports recorded double-digit growth rates in March (11.8%) and April (17.2%), playing a leading role in overall exports. Automobiles and other transportation equipment (103) also exceeded the baseline of 100. Food and beverages, tobacco, wood, pharmaceuticals, general and precision machinery and equipment recorded the baseline of 100.
The non-manufacturing BSI (93.5) also rose 11.4 points from the previous month, with wholesale and retail (101.8), leisure, accommodation and dining (100.0), and professional, scientific and technical, and business support services (100.0) either exceeding or reaching the baseline. The construction industry, classified as non-manufacturing, indicated 90.2 but recorded the largest increase (17.5) among all non-manufacturing sectors.
Although the 'current state of the economy' itself, such as domestic demand (95.8), exports (96.4), investment (93.0), employment (93.0), financial conditions (95.3), and profitability (96.4), is negative, it is interpreted as a signal that expectations for economic improvement are growing. 
Lee Sang-ho, head of the Economic and Industrial Headquarters of Hankyung Association, said, "As US-China trade friction has subsided and expectations for additional government economic stimulus have increased, expectations for a recovery in the manufacturing-centered business conditions are rising," but also emphasized, "We need to induce a definite rebound in economic sentiment by defending the economy with expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, responding to trade risks, and strengthening the institutional foundation to enhance corporate competitiveness."
Meanwhile, this survey was conducted from the 9th to the 16th of this month, targeting the top 600 companies in domestic sales (excluding financial companies), with a response rate of 59.9% (359 companies). 
ehcho@fnnews.com Reporter Cho Eun-hyo