Lee Jae-myung surpasses 50% in bilateral match.. Kim Moon-soo 42% - Lee Jun-seok 40%
- Input
- 2025-05-27 10:10:05
- Updated
- 2025-05-27 10:10:05
Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok combined narrowly with Lee Jae-myung
However, a bilateral match shows a 10%p difference
Lee 52% vs Kim 42%.. Lee 51% vs Lee 40%
Moderates, about 60% for 'Lee Jae-myung' in both multi-party and bilateral
13~20th presidential election, winner before blackout period
Political circles "Double-digit difference, possible 50% vote"
However, a bilateral match shows a 10%p difference
Lee 52% vs Kim 42%.. Lee 51% vs Lee 40%
Moderates, about 60% for 'Lee Jae-myung' in both multi-party and bilateral
13~20th presidential election, winner before blackout period
Political circles "Double-digit difference, possible 50% vote"
[Financial News] In the last public opinion poll before the blackout period of the presidential election, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, surpassed 50% in a virtual bilateral match.
According to the Korea Gallup survey commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo released on the 27th, the main candidates' support rates were 49% for Lee Jae-myung, 35% for Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party, and 11% for Lee Jun-seok of the Reform New Party. If the support rates of Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok, whose unification is noteworthy, are simply added, the gap with Lee Jae-myung narrows within the margin of error.
However, even when assuming a virtual bilateral match based on conservative candidate unification, the difference remained significant. Regardless of whether Kim Moon-soo or Lee Jun-seok comes forward as a single candidate, Lee Jae-myung's support rate exceeds 50%. When Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo face off, the support rates are 52% and 42%, respectively, widening the gap beyond the margin of error. Even if Lee Jun-seok steps forward, the difference is similar at 51% to 40%.
The reason Lee Jae-myung leads significantly in both multi-party and bilateral matches is due to strong support from the swing-voter moderates. Narrowing down to only moderate support, Lee Jae-myung's support response is 57% in multi-party matches, 58% when facing Lee Jun-seok in bilateral matches, and a whopping 61% when competing against Kim Moon-soo.
Looking at past Korea Gallup opinion poll records for the 13th to 20th presidential elections, the candidate who ranked first in the last survey before the blackout period has won. Furthermore, if the support rate gap is double digits, political circles predict that the leading candidate could record around half of the votes.
The cited survey was conducted on 1,004 people through a mobile phone interview method on the 24th and 25th. The response rate was 24.4%, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Review Committee.
uknow@fnnews.com Kim Yun-ho Reporter